Peran Kepemilikan Asing dalam Memoderasi Pengaruh Arus Kas Operasi dan Biaya Utang Terhadap Financial Distress

Shinta Kusumaningrum, Prof. Dr. Eduardus Tandelilin, M.B.A.

2026 | Tesis | S2 Manajemen

Sektor properti dan real estate bersifat padat modal dan sangat bergantung pada pembiayaan utang berjangka, sementara arus kas masuknya kerap tertunda, sehingga rentan terhadap tekanan keuangan ketika permintaan melemah dan suku bunga meningkat. Kerentanan ini semakin nyata pada periode 2021–2025 seiring pemulihan pascapandemi dan kenaikan suku bunga acuan yang menaikkan beban bunga, sehingga identifikasi determinan financial distress pada sektor properti menjadi penting untuk diteliti. Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh biaya utang dan arus kas operasi terhadap financial distress, serta menguji peran kepemilikan asing sebagai variabel pemoderasi, pada perusahaan properti dan real estate yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Financial distress diukur sebagai variabel dummy berbasis kapasitas pembayaran bunga (interest coverage ratio) sementara kepemilikan asing digunakan sebagai proksi mekanisme tata kelola. Dengan menggunakan 282 observasi tahun-perusahaan dari 58 emiten selama periode 2021–2025, penelitian ini mengestimasi model regresi logistik dengan efek tetap tahun dan clustered standard errors pada level perusahaan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa biaya utang berpengaruh positif dan arus kas operasi berpengaruh negatif terhadap probabilitas financial distress. Kepemilikan asing terbukti memperkuat pengaruh negatif arus kas operasi terhadap financial distress, tetapi kepemilikan asing tidak terbukti memperlemah pengaruh positif biaya utang. Temuan ini menegaskan pentingnya kapasitas pendanaan internal, disiplin biaya utang, dan peran monitoring investor asing dalam memitigasi risiko kesulitan keuangan pada sektor properti.

The property and real estate sector is capital-intensive and heavily dependent on long-term debt financing, while its cash inflows are often delayed, making it vulnerable to financial pressure when demand weakens and interest rates rise. This vulnerability became more pronounced during 2021–2025 amid the post-pandemic recovery and rising benchmark interest rates that raised interest burdens, making the identification of the determinants of financial distress in this sector important. This study examines the effects of the cost of debt and operating cash flow on financial distress, and tests the moderating role of foreign ownership as a corporate-governance mechanism, among property and real estate firms listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Financial distress is measured as a dummy variable based on interest-payment capacity (the interest coverage ratio), and foreign ownership is used as a proxy for the external monitoring mechanism. Using 282 firm-year observations from 58 firms over 2021–2025, the study estimates logistic regression models with year fixed effects and firm-level clustered standard errors. The results show that the cost of debt has a positive effect and operating cash flow has a negative effect on the probability of financial distress. Foreign ownership strengthens the protective (negative) effect of operating cash flow on financial distress, whereas foreign ownership does not attenuate the positive effect of the cost of debt. These findings underscore the importance of internal funding capacity, cost-of-debt discipline, and the monitoring role of foreign investors in mitigating financial-distress risk in the property sector.

Kata Kunci : Financial Distress, Biaya Utang, Arus Kas Operasi, Tata Kelola Perusahaan, Kepemilikan Asing, Regresi Logistik, Properti dan Real Estate. / Financial Distress, Cost of Debt, Operating Cash Flow, Corporate Governance, Foreign Ownership, Logistic Regression