Pengaruh Belanja Pendidikan, Belanja Kesehatan, dan Belanja Sosial terhadap Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM) di Kabupaten/Kota Pulau Jawa Tahun 2015–2024

Hendy Fauzi, Diny Ghuzini, S.E., M.Ec., Ph.D.

2026 | Tesis | S2 Magister Ek.Pembangunan

Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh belanja pendidikan, belanja kesehatan, dan belanja sosial terhadap Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM) pada kabupaten/kota di Pulau Jawa selama periode 2015–2024. Data panel sekunder diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) dan Direktorat Jenderal Perimbangan Keuangan (DJPK) Kementerian Keuangan (Kemenkeu). Estimasi awal menggunakan Two-Way Fixed Effect (TWFE) dengan standar eror Driscoll-Kraay (DK), sedangkan Least Squares Dummy Variable Corrected (LSDVC) inisialisasi Blundell-Bond (BB) digunakan sebagai model utama untuk mengakomodasi persistensi IPM dan mengoreksi bias panel dinamis pada dimensi waktu yang relatif pendek. Pendapatan Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) Atas Dasar Harga Konstan (ADHK) dan Indeks Kedalaman Kemiskinan (P1) digunakan sebagai variabel kontrol. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa IPM periode sebelumnya berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap IPM periode berjalan, yang mengindikasikan kuatnya persistensi pembangunan manusia. Belanja pendidikan berkoefisien positif tetapi tidak signifikan, sedangkan belanja kesehatan berkoefisien negatif dan tidak signifikan. Belanja sosial berkoefisien negatif dan signifikan terhadap IPM. Hubungan negatif tersebut tidak serta-merta menunjukkan bahwa belanja sosial menurunkan pembangunan manusia, tetapi dapat mencerminkan sifatnya yang kompensatoris, yaitu belanja cenderung meningkat pada daerah dengan kemiskinan, kerentanan sosial, dan capaian IPM yang relatif rendah. PDRB ADHK berpengaruh positif dan signifikan, sedangkan P1 berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap IPM. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa peningkatan nominal belanja belum otomatis menghasilkan perbaikan pembangunan manusia tanpa didukung ketepatan sasaran, kualitas implementasi, komposisi program, dan kebijakan yang berkelanjutan.

This study examines the effects of education expenditure, health expenditure, and social expenditure on the Human Development Index (HDI) across regencies and municipalities in Java during the 2015–2024 period. Secondary panel data were obtained from Statistics Indonesia and the Directorate General of Fiscal Balance of the Ministry of Finance. The initial estimation employed a Two-Way Fixed Effects (TWFE) model with Driscoll-Kraay (DK) standard errors, while the Least Squares Dummy Variable Corrected (LSDVC) initialized with Blundell-Bond (BB) estimator was used as the main model to account for HDI persistence and correct dynamic panel bias in a relatively short time dimension. Gross Regional Domestic Product at constant prices (GRDP) and the Poverty Gap Index (P1) were included as control variables. The results show that lagged HDI has a positive and statistically significant association with current HDI, indicating strong persistence in human development. Education expenditure has a positive but statistically insignificant coefficient, whereas health expenditure has a negative but statistically insignificant coefficient. Social expenditure has a negative and statistically significant coefficient. This negative relationship does not necessarily imply that social expenditure reduces human development; rather, it may reflect its compensatory nature, whereby expenditure tends to increase in areas characterized by deeper poverty, greater social vulnerability, and relatively lower HDI levels. GRDP at constant prices has a positive and statistically significant association with HDI, while the P1 has a negative and statistically significant association. These findings indicate that higher nominal expenditure does not automatically translate into improved human development unless it is supported by accurate targeting, high-quality implementation, appropriate program composition, and sustained policy commitment.

Kata Kunci : Belanja pendidikan, belanja kesehatan, belanja sosial, indeks pembangunan manusia, panel dinamis, LSDVC