Estimasi dan Analisis Spasial Timbulan Sampah Tingkat Kecamatan di Metropolitan Yogyakarta untuk Penentuan Prioritas Pengembangan TPS3R

Pajar Rahmadianto, Ir. Vempi Satriya Adi Hendrawan, S. T., M. Env., Ph. D.

2026 | Skripsi | S1 TEKNIK INFRASTRUKTUR LINGKUNGAN

Timbulan sampah yang terus mengalami peningkatan seiring dengan pertumbuhan penduduk, berkembangnya aktivitas ekonomi, serta perkembangan kawasan perkotaan menjadi tantangan dalam pengelolaan persampahan. Metropolitan Yogyakarta yang terdiri atas Kabupaten Sleman, Kabupaten Bantul, dan Kota Yogyakarta memiliki kondisi wilayah yang beragam sehingga berpotensi meningkatkan distribusi timbulan sampah yang beragam antarkecamatan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengestimasi dan memetakan distribusi spasial timbulan sampah tingkat kecamatan, menganalisis karakteristik autokorelasi spasial, menganalisis tingkat ketimpangan distribusi timbulan sampah, serta menganalisis kebutuhan pengembangan infrastruktur TPS3R.

 

Estimasi timbulan sampah menggunakan model regresi linier berganda yang dibentuk berdasarkan 40 observasi dari 10 wilayah, yaitu Kabupaten Sleman, Kabupaten Bantul, Kota Yogyakarta, Kota Bandung, Kota Semarang, Kota Surakarta, Kota Denpasar, Kabupaten Gianyar, Kabupaten Malang, dan Kota Malang, pada periode 2022–2025. Model melibatkan variabel jumlah penduduk, Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM), jumlah hotel, jumlah pasar, dan jumlah rumah makan/restoran. Data kuantitatif pembentuk model diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), Dinas Pariwisata, dan dinas perdagangan. Analisis spasial dilakukan menggunakan Global Moran's I, Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA), dan Getis-Ord Gi*. Tingkat ketimpangan dianalisis menggunakan Kurva Lorenz dan Koefisien Gini. Selanjutnya, kebutuhan pengembangan TPS3R dianalisis melalui rasio pelayanan, defisit kapasitas, dan Indeks Prioritas Pengembangan TPS3R.

 

Hasil penelitian membuktikan model regresi memiliki tingkat kemampuan yang tinggi dalam menjelaskan variasi timbulan sampah, sebagaimana tercermin dari nilai koefisien korelasi (R) sebesar 0,915, koefisien determinasi (R²) sebesar 0,838, serta Adjusted R² sebesar 0,814. Hasil analisis spasial menunjukkan adanya autokorelasi spasial positif dan signifikan dengan nilai Moran's I berkisar antara 0,173–0,349 (p-value < 0>

The continuous increase in waste generation driven by population growth, expanding economic activities, and urban development has become a major challenge in solid waste management. The Yogyakarta Metropolitan Area, consisting of Sleman Regency, Bantul Regency, and Yogyakarta City, has diverse regional characteristics that may contribute to variations in waste generation distribution across sub-districts. This study aims to estimate and spatially map waste generation at the sub-district level, analyze spatial autocorrelation characteristics, assess inequality in waste generation distribution, and analyze the need for the development of TPS3R infrastructure.

Waste generation was estimated using a multiple linear regression model developed from 40 observations across 10 regions, namely Sleman Regency, Bantul Regency, Yogyakarta City, Bandung City, Semarang City, Surakarta City, Denpasar City, Gianyar Regency, Malang Regency, and Malang City, during the 2022–2025 period. The model incorporated population, Human Development Index (HDI), number of hotels, number of markets, and number of restaurants/eateries as explanatory variables. Quantitative data for model development were obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Tourism Offices, and agencies responsible for trade affairs. Spatial analysis was conducted using Global Moran's I, Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA), and Getis-Ord Gi*. Inequality was assessed using the Lorenz Curve and Gini Coefficient. Furthermore, the need for TPS3R development was analyzed using the service ratio, capacity deficit, and TPS3R Development Priority Index.

The results demonstrate that the regression model has a high explanatory capability for variations in waste generation, as indicated by a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.915, coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.838, and Adjusted R² of 0.814. Spatial analysis revealed significant positive spatial autocorrelation, with Moran's I values ranging from 0.173 to 0.349 (p-value < 0>

Kata Kunci : timbulan sampah, regresi linier berganda, analisis spasial, Moran's I, TPS3R, Metropolitan Yogyakarta.