Strategi Pengendalian dan Mitigasi Risiko Teknis pada Proyek Jalan Tol Menggunakan Delphi Method (Studi Kasus: Jalan Tol X)

Rafida Jihan Fauziah, Dr. Toriq Arif Ghuzdewan, S.T., M.Sc.E.; Prof. Dr.Techn. Ir. Danang Parikesit, M.Sc.(Eng)., IPU., APEC.Eng., QRGP.

2026 | Tesis | S2 Teknik Sipil

Pelaksanaan proyek jalan tol bersifat kompleks dan memiliki tingkat ketidakpastian yang tinggi karena melibatkan banyak pemangku kepentingan serta tahapan pekerjaan yang saling berkaitan. Kondisi tersebut menyebabkan proyek rentan terhadap risiko teknis yang dapat memengaruhi pencapaian sasaran proyek. Oleh karena itu, diperlukan penilaian risiko serta strategi pengendalian dan mitigasi sesuai kondisi proyek. Penelitian ini bertujuan menentukan risiko teknis yang perlu dipertimbangkan, menganalisis hasil penilaian risiko sebagai dasar penetapan risiko prioritas, menganalisis perbedaan persepsi antar kelompok pemangku kepentingan, merumuskan strategi pengendalian dan mitigasi berdasarkan konsensus panel ahli, serta mengevaluasi strategi yang mencapai konsensus pada Proyek Jalan Tol X.

Penelitian melibatkan panel ahli dan responden dari lima kelompok pemangku kepentingan. Faktor risiko disusun berdasarkan studi literatur, divalidasi menggunakan Aiken’s V, dan dilengkapi berdasarkan masukan panel ahli. Tingkat risiko ditentukan melalui Severity Index dan Risk Index (RI). Perbedaan persepsi dianalisis berdasarkan RI responden menggunakan uji Kruskal-Wallis dan dilanjutkan dengan uji Dunn apabila terdapat perbedaan signifikan. Strategi dirumuskan melalui Delphi Method dua putaran, dengan konsensus ditentukan berdasarkan persentase persetujuan dan Interquartile Range. Selanjutnya, strategi yang mencapai konsensus dievaluasi menggunakan Degree of Confidence (DoC) dan residual risk.

Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa 25 faktor risiko teknis perlu dipertimbangkan pada Proyek Jalan Tol X. Delapan risiko di antaranya berada pada level tinggi dan ditetapkan sebagai prioritas, yaitu A1, A4, A6, B4, B7, C6, C8, dan D7. Perbedaan persepsi signifikan ditemukan pada risiko A4 antara konsultan perencana dan konsultan pengawas. Terhadap risiko prioritas tersebut, dirumuskan 32 strategi, dengan 31 strategi mencapai konsensus panel ahli. Evaluasi strategi menunjukkan nilai DoC sebesar 70,00%–90,91%. Sementara penilaian residual risk menunjukkan potensi penurunan RI apabila strategi diasumsikan diterapkan, yaitu dari 16 menjadi 9 pada tujuh risiko dan menjadi 6 pada risiko C6. Dengan demikian, hasil penelitian dapat menjadi pertimbangan dalam pengelolaan risiko teknis pada proyek jalan tol sejenis.

The construction of a toll road project is highly complicated because it involves numerous stakeholders and interconnected technical works. These factors make toll road projects vulnerable to technical risks that can influence construction objectives. Therefore, it requires risk valuation, strategic management, and mitigation based on field condition. This research aims to determine the technical risks that must be considered, analyze the results of risk valuation as a reference for determining priority risks, and evaluate the differing interests among stakeholders that influence how the level of technical risk is assessed. Furthermore, it seeks to formulate solutions for managing and mitigating technical risks based on expert experience and to evaluate strategies that have achieved consensus in toll road projects.

This research involves experts and respondents from five stakeholder groups. Risk factors are formulated based on a literature review, validated using Aiken’s V, and refined through expert judgment. The levels of risk are determined using the Severity Index and the Risk Index (RI). Differences in perception are analyzed based on respondents’ RI values using the Kruskal–Wallis test, followed by Dunn’s test when significant differences are identified. The risk mitigation strategy is developed through two iterations of the Delphi method, with consensus determined based on the percentage of agreement and the interquartile range. Strategies that reach consensus are then evaluated using the Degree of Confidence (DoC) and residual risk.

The results of the study indicate that 25 technical risk factors need to be considered in the X Toll Road Project. Eight of these risks fall into the high level category and are designated as priorities, namely A1, A4, A6, B4, B7, C6, C8, and D7. A significant difference in perception was found for risk A4 between the planning consultant and the supervision consultant. For these priority risks, 32 strategies were formulated, with 31 of them achieving consensus among the expert panel. The strategy evaluation shows DoC values ranging from 70.00% to 90.91%. Meanwhile, the residual risk assessment indicates a potential reduction in RI if the strategies are assumed to be implemented, decreasing from 16 to 9 for seven risks and to 6 for risk C6. Therefore, the findings of this research may serve as a consideration for managing technical risks in similar toll road projects.

Kata Kunci : risiko teknis, jalan tol, Delphi method, risk index, persepsi pemangku kepentingan