Optimalisasi Spasial Kebijakan Zonasi Pendidikan di Kota Metropolitan: Pendekatan Stackelberg Game Theory

RINO DWI PUTRA, Dr. Bevaola Kusumasari, M.Si.

2026 | Tesis | S2 Administrasi Publik

Kebijakan zonasi Penerimaan Peserta Didik Baru (PPDB) yang bertumpu pada pengukuran jarak Euclidean menciptakan ilusi aksesibilitas yang menutupi ketimpangan spasial struktural di kota-kota metropolitan Indonesia. Beroperasi di atas distribusi fasilitas pendidikan yang terkonsentrasi di kawasan inner city peninggalan tata ruang historis, kebijakan ini secara sistematis menghasilkan service deserts di kawasan peri-urban yang justru dihuni kelompok berpenghasilan rendah. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengidentifikasi bias pengukuran aksesibilitas spasial, mengestimasi sensitivitas perilaku pemilihan sekolah antarsegmen ekonomi, mengevaluasi inefisiensi kesejahteraan sosial sistem zonasi status quo, serta mensimulasikan efektivitas skenario intervensi kebijakan untuk menghasilkan ekuilibrium yang lebih adil secara spasial. Penelitian menggunakan desain kuantitatif eksplanatori-preskriptif pada tiga kota metropolitan: Jakarta, Medan, dan Makassar dengan sumber data SUSENAS 2025, Dapodik, RBI, dan PODES. Analisis ditempuh melalui tiga tahap: kalkulasi OD Cost Matrix berbasis network routing GIS; estimasi Spatially Correlated Multinomial Logit (MSCL); dan simulasi Bilevel Optimization dalam kerangka Stackelberg Game Theory. Temuan menunjukkan selisih jarak Euclidean terhadap jarak jaringan jalan riil rata-rata 19,68 persen untuk SMP dan 22,97 persen untuk SMA, dengan Gini Rasio Aksesibilitas status quo mencapai 0,83. Kelompok miskin terbukti secara signifikan lebih sensitif terhadap biaya akses pendidikan dan menanggung rata-rata 99,56 persen deadweight loss akibat ekuilibrium yang tidak optimal yang dihasilkan oleh konfigurasi zonasi yang ada. Simulasi skenario kombinasi redistribusi kapasitas infrastruktur dan subsidi Makan Bergizi Gratis (MBG) menghasilkan peningkatan Social Welfare sebesar 54,43 persen dan penurunan deadweight loss sebesar 63,19 persen. Penelitian ini merekomendasikan penggantian metrik Euclidean dengan network routing berbasis GIS, redistribusi afirmatif kapasitas sekolah negeri ke kawasan blank spot, serta integrasi lintas sektoral program MBG ke dalam kerangka aksesibilitas pendidikan.

The education zoning policy for new student admission (PPDB), which relies on Euclidean distance measurement, creates an illusion of accessibility that masks structural spatial inequalities in Indonesian metropolitan cities. Operating over an educational facility distribution concentrated in inner-city areas — a legacy of historical spatial planning — this policy systematically produces service deserts in peri-urban areas inhabited by low-income groups. This study aims to identify spatial accessibility measurement bias, estimate school-choice behavioral sensitivity across economic segments, evaluate the social welfare inefficiency of the status quo zoning system, and simulate the effectiveness of policy intervention scenarios to produce a more spatially equitable equilibrium. The study employs an explanatory-prescriptive quantitative design across three metropolitan cities — Jakarta, Medan, and Makassar — using data from SUSENAS 2025, Dapodik, RBI, and PODES. Analysis proceeds in three stages: GIS network routing-based OD Cost Matrix calculation; Spatially Correlated Multinomial Logit (MSCL) estimation; and Bilevel Optimization simulation within a Stackelberg Game Theory framework. Findings reveal that the gap between Euclidean distance and actual road network distance averages 19.68 percent for junior high schools and 22.97 percent for senior high schools, with the status quo Accessibility Gini Ratio reaching 0.83. Low-income groups are shown to be significantly more sensitive to education access costs and bear an average of 99.56 percent of the deadweight loss resulting from the suboptimal equilibrium produced by existing zoning configurations. Simulation of a combined scenario involving infrastructure capacity redistribution and the Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) subsidy yields a 54.43 percent increase in Social Welfare and a 63.19 percent reduction in deadweight loss. The study recommends replacing Euclidean metrics with GIS-based network routing, affirmative redistribution of public school capacity to blank spot areas, and cross-sectoral integration of the MBG program into the education accessibility framework.

Kata Kunci : Kebijakan Zonasi PPDB, Stackelberg Game Theory, Ketimpangan Spasial, Service Desert, Kesejahteraan Sosial