Estimasi Nilai Wajar Saham PT Bank DKI pada Saat Initial Public Offering

Tuty Rachmawati, I Wayan Nuka Lantara, M.Si., Ph.D.

2026 | Tesis | S2 MANAJEMEN (MM) JAKARTA

PT Bank DKI adalah Badan Usaha Milik Daerah (BUMD) di bidang perbankan yang mayoritas sahamnya dimiliki oleh Pemerintah Provinsi DKI Jakarta. Dalam rangka memperkuat posisi perusahaan dan mendukung pertumbuhan jangka panjang, PT Bank DKI merencanakan pelaksanaan Initial Public Offering (IPO) pada tahun 2027. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengestimasi nilai wajar saham PT Bank DKI sebagai dasar dalam penentuan harga saham perdana pada saat IPO.

Penilaian dilakukan melalui tiga pendekatan, yaitu metode Discounted Cash Flow-Free Cash Flow to Equity (DCF-FCFE), metode Residual Income, dan metode Relative Valuation (PER dan PBV). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa metode FCFE menghasilkan nilai wajar saham sebesar Rp418 per lembar saham pada worst case scenario, Rp651 per lembar saham pada normal case scenario, dan Rp1.269 per lembar saham pada best case scenario. Metode relative valuation menghasilkan nilai wajar saham sebesar Rp127 per lembar saham pada worst case scenario, Rp130 per lembar saham pada normal case scenario, dan Rp136 per lembar saham pada best case scenario, sedangkan metode residual income menghasilkan nilai negatif sehingga tidak digunakan dalam rekonsiliasi akhir.

Berdasarkan hasil rekonsiliasi metode FCFE dan Relative Valuation, nilai wajar saham PT Bank DKI berada pada kisaran Rp302 sampai dengan Rp816 per lembar saham, dengan nilai normal case scenario sebesar Rp442 per lembar saham yang dapat digunakan sebagai acuan utama dalam mempertimbangkan harga saham perdana.

PT Bank DKI is a regional government-owned enterprise (Badan Usaha Milik Daerah/BUMD) operating in the banking sector, with the majority of its shares owned by the Provincial Government of DKI Jakarta. To strengthen its corporate position and support long term business growth, PT Bank DKI plans to conduct an Initial Public Offering (IPO) in 2027. This study aims to estimate the fair value of PT Bank DKI’s shares as a basis for determining the initial offering price at the time of the IPO.

The valuation was conducted using three approaches, namely the Discounted Cash Flow-Free Cash Flow to Equity (DCF-FCFE) method, the Residual Income method, and the Relative Valuation method using Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) and Price to Book Value (PBV). The results show that the FCFE method produces a fair value of Rp418 per share under the worst case scenario, Rp651 per share under the normal case scenario, and Rp1.269 per share under the best case scenario. The relative valuation method resulted in a fair value of Rp127 per share under the worst case scenario, Rp130 per share under the normal case scenario, and Rp136 per share under the best case scenario, while the residual income method generates a negative value and is therefore excluded from the final reconciliation.

Based on the reconciliation of the FCFE and Relative Valuation methods, the fair value of PT Bank DKI’s shares ranges from Rp302 to Rp816 per share. The normal case scenario value of Rp442 per share is used as the main reference in considering the initial offering price.

Kata Kunci : Nilai Wajar Saham, Free Cash Flow to Equity, Residual Income, dan Relative Valuation