Geoekonomi Proteksionisme Perdagangan: Studi Kasus Indonesia dan Malaysia dalam Menghadapi Pasar Uni Eropa

Agustina Rahmawati, Dr. Maharani Hapsari, M.A.

2026 | Tesis | S2 Ilmu Hubungan Internasional

Tesis ini mengkaji perbedaan strategi geoekonomi Indonesia dan Malaysia dalam menghadapi tekanan regulatif Uni Eropa melalui Renewable Energy Directive II (RED II) dan European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan Neo-Gramscian Robert W. Cox (1981, 1987) dan tipologi geoekonomi Wigell (2016) untuk menjelaskan hubungan antara tekanan keberlanjutan global dan strategi negara. Penelitian menerapkan desain studi kasus komparatif most similar systems dan metode theory-testing process tracing untuk menelusuri mekanisme kausal pada tingkat world order, forms of state, dan social forces yang dianalisis melalui konsep historical bloc. Data diperoleh melalui studi dokumen atas regulasi Uni Eropa, dokumen kebijakan dan sertifikasi nasional, dokumen WTO, serta data perdagangan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa variasi strategi geoekonomi bersumber dari perbedaan konfigurasi historical bloc industri sawit di kedua negara. Basis material yang terfragmentasi, institusi yang terdesentralisasi, dan legitimasi yang berbasis kedaulatan ekonomi mendorong Indonesia mengadopsi strategi neo-mercantilist melalui resistensi perdagangan, penguatan pasar domestik, dan hilirisasi. Sebaliknya, basis material yang lebih terintegrasi, institusi yang terkoordinasi, dan legitimasi yang berbasis kredibilitas tata kelola mendorong Malaysia mengadopsi strategi liberal institutionalist melalui penguatan sertifikasi, ketertelusuran, dan diplomasi keberlanjutan. Perbedaan sumber legitimasi ideologis menjadi mekanisme penjelas utama atas variasi strategi kedua negara. Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa tekanan keberlanjutan Uni Eropa menghasilkan strategi geoekonomi yang berbeda karena dimediasi oleh struktur historis domestik yang membentuk sumber legitimasi dan kepentingan strategis negara.

This thesis examines the divergent geoeconomic strategies adopted by Indonesia and Malaysia in responding to European Union regulatory pressure exerted through the Renewable Energy Directive II (RED II) and the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). Drawing on Robert W. Cox’s Neo-Gramscian approach (1981, 1987) and Wigell’s geoeconomic typology (2016), the study explains the relationship between global sustainability pressure and state strategy. It employs a most similar systems comparative case study design together with a theory-testing process tracing method in order to trace the causal mechanism across three levels — world order, forms of state, and social forces — the last of which is analysed through the concept of the historical bloc. Data were gathered through document analysis of European Union regulations, national policy and certification documents, WTO documents, and trade statistics. The findings demonstrate that the variation in geoeconomic strategy stems from differences in the configuration of the palm oil historical bloc in each country. A fragmented material base, decentralised institutions, and legitimacy grounded in economic sovereignty have led Indonesia to adopt a neo-mercantilist strategy through trade resistance, the strengthening of the domestic market, and downstreaming. Conversely, a more integrated material base, coordinated institutions, and legitimacy grounded in governance credibility have led Malaysia to adopt a liberal institutionalist strategy through the strengthening of certification, traceability, and sustainability diplomacy. The difference in the ideological sources of legitimacy constitutes the principal mechanism explaining the divergence between the two states. The study concludes that European Union sustainability pressure produces divergent geoeconomic strategies because it is mediated by domestic historical structures that shape each state’s sources of legitimacy and strategic interests.

Kata Kunci : geoekonomi, historical bloc, keberlanjutan, minyak sawit, Neo-Gramscian, RED II, EUDR