Analisis Implementasi ASEAN-China Free Trade Area Terhadap Ekspor Produk Elektronik dan Peralatan Listrik Indonesia : Trade Creation and Trade Diversion

Adinda Salshabilla Zhauzha Huda, Diny Ghuzini, S.E., M.Sc., Ph.D.

2026 | Tesis | S2 Magister Ek.Pembangunan

Implementasi ASEAN–China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) telah meningkatkan perdagangan Indonesia–China, tetapi dampaknya terhadap sektor elektronik dan peralatan listrik (HS 85) masih belum sepenuhnya jelas. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengevaluasi apakah liberalisasi tarif dalam kerangka ACFTA menghasilkan trade creation atau trade diversion pada ekspor produk HS 85 Indonesia ke 40 negara mitra selama periode 1995–2024. Penelitian ini menggunakan augmented gravity model dengan data panel bilateral. Estimasi utama dilakukan menggunakan metode Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) karena mampu mengatasi heteroskedastisitas dan mengakomodasi observasi zero trade. Sebagai uji robustness, hasil PPML dibandingkan dengan estimasi Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (Pooled OLS), Fixed Effects (FE), dan Random Effects (RE). Dampak implementasi ACFTA diidentifikasi melalui dua variabel dummy, yaitu FTA1 untuk negara anggota ACFTA dan FTA2 untuk negara nonanggota setelah implementasi ACFTA. Hasil estimasi PPML menunjukkan bahwa koefisien FTA1 (-1,200) dan FTA2 (-1,191) bernilai negatif dan signifikan pada taraf 1 persen. Transformasi eksponensial menunjukkan bahwa implementasi ACFTA berkorelasi dengan penurunan ekspor produk HS 85 Indonesia masing-masing sebesar 69,9 ?n 69,6 % dibandingkan dengan kondisi sebelum ACFTA. Berdasarkan klasifikasi Viner (1950), temuan tersebut mengindikasikan terjadinya export diversion  yang disertai export contraction, bukan trade creation. Hasil ini diperkuat oleh stagnasi pangsa ekspor elektronik Indonesia dibandingkan dengan negara ASEAN-6 lainnya, rendahnya kontribusi PDB dan nilai ekspor elektronik Indonesia di antara anggota ACFTA, serta defisit perdagangan HS 85 yang terus meningkat. Oleh karena itu, peningkatan daya saing struktural industri domestik menjadi prasyarat penting agar Indonesia dapat memperoleh manfaat yang lebih optimal dari integrasi ekonomi regional.

The implementation of the ASEAN–China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) has increased trade between Indonesia and China; however, its impact on the electronics and electrical equipment sector (HS 85) remains unclear. This study examines whether tariff liberalization under the ACFTA has led to trade creation or trade diversion in Indonesia's HS 85 exports to 40 trading partner countries over the period 1995–2024. This study employs an augmented gravity model using bilateral panel data. The primary estimation is conducted using the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator because it is robust to heteroskedasticity and can accommodate zero-trade observations. As a robustness check, the PPML results are compared with those obtained from Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (Pooled OLS), Fixed Effects (FE), and Random Effects (RE) models. The effects of ACFTA implementation are identified through two dummy variables: FTA1, representing ACFTA member countries, and FTA2, representing non-member countries in the post-implementation period. The PPML estimation results indicate that the coefficients of FTA1 (-1.200) and FTA2 (-1.191) are negative and statistically significant at the 1 percent level. Exponential transformation of these coefficients suggests that ACFTA implementation is associated with a 69.9 percent and 69.6 percent decline, respectively, in Indonesia's HS 85 exports relative to the pre-ACFTA period. According to Viner's (1950) classification, these findings indicate export diversion accompanied by export contraction rather than trade creation. This conclusion is further supported by the stagnation of Indonesia's share of electronics exports compared with other ASEAN-6 countries, the relatively low contribution of Indonesia's GDP and electronics export value among ACFTA members, and the widening trade deficit in HS 85 products. Therefore, enhancing the structural competitiveness of Indonesia's domestic industry is essential for maximizing the benefits of regional economic integration.

Kata Kunci : ASEAN-China Free Trade Area, Trade Creation, Trade Diversion, Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood, HS 85, Perdagangan Bilateral