Analisis Pengaruh Aglomerasi Perkotaan terhadap Ketimpangan Pendapatan di Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta pada Tahun 2015–2025

Wulan Ely Khasanah, Prof. Mudrajad Kuncoro, Ph.D.

2026 | Tugas Akhir | D4 PEMBANGUNAN EKONOMI KEWILAYAHAN

Penelitian ini menganalisis pola spasial aglomerasi perkotaan di Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta (DIY) periode 2015 - 2025 serta pengaruhnya terhadap ketimpangan pendapatan. Metode yang digunakan meliputi pemetaan spasial kepadatan penduduk dan analisis Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) dan pemetaan graduated color untuk mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor penyebab konsentrasi geografis aglomerasi serta regresi data panel (termasuk uji sensitivitas) untuk menguji hipotesis Kuznets dan determinan Rasio Gini. Hasil pemetaan dan LISA menunjukkan pola high-high cluster yang persisten di Kota Yogyakarta beserta beberapa kecamatan di Kabupaten Bantul dan Sleman, serta low-low cluster dominan di Kabupaten Gunungkidul dan Kulon Progo. Pemetaan dari hasil skor komposit mengonfirmasi bahwa konsentrasi geografis aglomerasi tersebut didorong oleh faktor historis-politik, konsentrasi perguruan tinggi, aksesibilitas infrastruktur, dan aktivitas ekonomi, dengan Sleman dan Kota Yogyakarta menempati skor tertinggi yangmana menunjukkan konsentrasi aglomerasi perkotaan. Pengujian hipotesis Kuznets mengindikasikan pola kurva-U terbalik antara PDRB perkapita dan Rasio Gini, dengan titik balik mendekati batas atas sampel, menunjukkan DIY secara umum masih berada pada fase menaik. Determinan Rasio Gini menunjukkan bahwa kepadatan penduduk, realisasi investasi, dan keberadaan bandara berpengaruh negatif signifikan, sementara tingkat kemiskinan, pengangguran, dan terutama IPM berpengaruh positif signifikan. Uji sensitivitas menemukan bahwa status wilayah aglomerasi tidak berpengaruh langsung terhadap ketimpangan, melainkan bekerja secara tidak langsung melalui IPM dan kemiskinan. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa aglomerasi perkotaan di DIY mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi namun belum sepenuhnya inklusif secara spasial maupun distributif.

This study analyzes the spatial patterns of urban agglomeration in the Special Region of Yogyakarta (DIY) for the period 2015–2025, as well as its impact on income inequality. The methods used include spatial mapping of population density, Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) analysis, and graduated color mapping to identify the factors causing the geographic concentration of agglomerations, as well as panel data regression (including sensitivity tests) to test the Kuznets hypothesis and the determinants of the Gini coefficient. The mapping and LISA results reveal persistent high-high clusters in Yogyakarta City and several subdistricts in Bantul and Sleman Regencies, as well as dominant low-low clusters in Gunungkidul and Kulon Progo Regencies. Mapping of the composite score results confirmed that this geographic concentration of agglomeration is driven by historical-political factors, the concentration of higher education institutions, infrastructure accessibility, and economic activity, with Sleman and Yogyakarta City recording the highest scores, indicating a concentration of urban agglomeration. Testing the Kuznets hypothesis indicates an inverted U-shaped curve between per capita GRDP and the Gini coefficient, with the inflection point approaching the upper limit of the sample, suggesting that the Special Region of Yogyakarta (DIY) is generally still in an ascending phase. Determinants of the Gini coefficient show that population density, investment realization, and the presence of an airport have a significant negative effect, while poverty rates, unemployment, and especially the Human Development Index (HDI) have a significant positive effect. Sensitivity tests found that agglomeration status does not directly affect inequality but rather acts indirectly through the HDI and poverty. These findings confirm that urban agglomeration in DIY drives economic growth but is not yet fully inclusive, either spatially or distributively. 

Kata Kunci : aglomerasi perkotaan, LISA, hipotesis Kuznets, ketimpangan pendapatan, Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta, urban agglomeration, LISA, Kuznets hypothesis, income inequality, Special Region of Yogyakarta