Hubungan kausalitas ekspor, investasi asing langsung, dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia, 1970-2003

SUHARNO, Drs. Akhmad Makhfatih, MA

2005 | Tesis | Magister Ekonomika Pembangunan

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi hubungan kausalitas antara ekspor, investasi asing langsung, dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Data yang digunakan berupa data sekunder, time series tahun 1970-2003 atau 34 pengamatan. Data tersebut dikelompokan menjadi tiga periode yaitu periode 1970-1980 (oil boomimports substitution strategy), periode 1981-1997 (pasca oil boom-imports substitution strategy pre crisis), dan periode 1998-2003 (recovery pasca crisis). Analisis data dilakukan dengan analisis uji kausalitas Granger. Hasil penelitian dengan uji kausalitas Granger menunjukkan bahwa terjadi hubungan kausalitas dua arah ekspor dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam periode 1970-1980 dan investasi asing langsung dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam periode 1981-1997. Hubungan kausalitas searah yaitu dari ekspor ke investasi asing langsung dalam periode 1970-1997. Dalam periode 1981-1997 hubungan kausalitas searah terjadi yaitu dari pertumbuhan ekonomi ke ekspor. Begitu pula hubungan kausalitas searah terjadi yaitu dari investasi asing langsung ke ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam periode 1998-2003. Tidak ada hubungan kausalitas antara ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam periode 1998-2003.

The aim of this research is to analyze causal relationship between exports, foreign direct investment, and economy growth in Indonesia. The datas used here are annual time series data for the 1970-2003 period or 34 observation. The data are identified three separate periods: 1970-1980 (oil boom-imports substitution strategy) period, 1981-1997 (pasca oil boom-imports substitution strategy pre crisis) period, and 1998-2003 (recovery pasca crisis) period. The analize used is the Granger causality test. The result of research with Granger causality test show there is a bilateral causal relationship between exports and economic growth in the 1970-1980 period and foreign direct investment and economic growth in the 1981-1997 period. There is a undirectional causal relationship between foreign direct investment and exports with direction from foreign direct investment to exports in the 1970-1997 period. In the 1981-1997 period, there in a a undirectional causal relationship between economic growth and exports with direction from economic growth to exports. On the other hand, there is a unidirectional causal relationship between exports, foreign direct investment, and economic growth with direction from foreign direct investment to exports and foreign direct investment to economic growth in the 1998-2003 period. There is not a causal relationship between exports and economic growth in the 1998- 2003 period.

Kata Kunci : Pertumbuhan Ekonomi,Investasi dan Kausalitas Ekspor, Causality, Exports, Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth