ANALISIS PREDIKSI KEBANGKRUTAN DAN PEMETAAN RISIKO FINANSIAL SEBAGAI BASIS EVALUASI KESIAPAN MERGER BUMN KARYA

Zulaika Septia Nurlita, Rizky Wulandari, S.E., M.Acc.

2026 | Tugas Akhir | D4 Akuntansi Sektor Publik

Kondisi keuangan BUMN Karya yang mengalami tekanan akibat tingginya beban utang dan menurunnya kinerja keuangan mendorong pemerintah merencanakan konsolidasi melalui skema merger. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis kondisi financial distress, mengevaluasi risiko transfer finansial melalui simulasi neraca konsolidasi proforma, serta menilai kesiapan finansial konsolidasi BUMN Karya periode 2022–2025. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan deskriptif kuantitatif dengan data sekunder berupa laporan keuangan tujuh BUMN Karya. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan model Altman Z-Score (1995), simulasi neraca konsolidasi proforma, serta evaluasi deskriptif terhadap indikator Debt to Asset Ratio (DAR) dan Equity to Asset Ratio (EAR). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa enam dari tujuh BUMN Karya berada pada kondisi grey zone atau distress zone, sedangkan PT Hutama Karya menjadi satu-satunya entitas yang mampu mempertahankan kondisi safe zone hingga tahun 2025. Simulasi konsolidasi menunjukkan bahwa setiap pasangan merger memiliki tingkat risiko transfer finansial yang berbeda, dengan pasangan PT Pembangunan Perumahan–PT Wijaya Karya memiliki risiko tertinggi, sedangkan kelompok PT Adhi Karya–PT Brantas Abipraya–PT Nindya Karya menunjukkan perbaikan struktur permodalan dibandingkan kondisi awal. Evaluasi kesiapan finansial menunjukkan bahwa belum terdapat pasangan merger yang sepenuhnya siap untuk dilaksanakan tanpa langkah penyehatan keuangan, sehingga restrukturisasi utang dan penguatan permodalan menjadi prasyarat utama sebelum merger dilakukan.

The financial condition of Indonesian State-Owned Construction Enterprises (BUMN Karya) has been adversely affected by high debt burdens and weakening financial performance, prompting the government to pursue consolidation through merger schemes. This study aims to analyze the level of financial distress, evaluate financial risk transfer through pro forma consolidated balance sheet simulation, and assess the financial readiness for consolidation of BUMN Karya during the 2022–2025 period. This research employs a quantitative descriptive approach using secondary data obtained from the financial statements of seven BUMN Karya companies. The analysis applies the Altman Z-Score (1995) model, pro forma consolidated balance sheet simulation, and descriptive evaluation based on the Debt to Asset Ratio (DAR) and Equity to Asset Ratio (EAR). The findings indicate that six out of seven BUMN Karya companies remain in the grey zone or distress zone, while PT Hutama Karya is the only company that consistently maintained the safe zone throughout 2025. The consolidation simulation reveals varying levels of financial risk transfer across the proposed merger schemes, with the PT PP–PT Wijaya Karya combination exhibiting the highest financial risk, whereas the PT Adhi Karya–PT Brantas Abipraya–PT Nindya Karya group demonstrates an improvement in capital structure compared to the initial condition. Furthermore, the financial readiness assessment indicates that none of the proposed consolidation schemes is fully prepared for implementation without prior financial restructuring. Therefore, debt restructuring and capital strengthening remain essential prerequisites before consolidation can be effectively carried out.

Kata Kunci : Altman Z-Score, BUMN Karya, Financial Distress, Konsolidasi, Merger, Neraca Proforma, Risiko Transfer Finansial.