DAMPAK SHADOW ECONOMY TERHADAP ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT DI NEGARA BERPENDAPATAN MENENGAH DI ASIA

Irma Manurung, Amirullah Setya Hardi, S.E., Cand.Oecon., Ph.D.

2026 | Skripsi | ILMU EKONOMI

Asia merupakan kawasan dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang pesat, tetapi menghadapi masalah degradasi lingkungan akibat intensnya aktivitas ekonomi yang merusak lingkungan. Namun, tidak seluruh aktivitas tersebut tercatat secara resmi atau disebut dengan shadow economy. Kawasan Asia memiliki porsi shadow economy yang relatif tinggi, padahal aktivitas ini berpotensi memengaruhi kualitas lingkungan. Dalam literatur, hubungan antara shadow economy dan kualitas lingkungan masih menunjukkan hasil yang kontradiktif, sehingga mendorong munculnya hipotesis bahwa hubungan keduanya bersifat non-linear. Hingga saat ini, belum terdapat penelitian yang secara khusus menguji hipotesis tersebut di kawasan Asia.  Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis hubungan non-linear antara shadow economy dan ecological footprint di 18 negara berkembang Asia periode 2000–2022 menggunakan metode Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) dengan pendekatan Pooled Mean Group (PMG). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan adanya hubungan non-linear berbentuk inverted-U antara shadow economy dan ecological footprint. 

Asia is a region characterized by rapid economic growth, yet it also faces environmental degradation due to the intensity of environmentally damaging economic activities. However, not all of these activities are officially recorded, as a portion takes place within the shadow economy. Asia has a relatively high share of shadow economy activities, even though such activities may influence environmental quality. In the existing literature, the relationship between the shadow economy and environmental quality remains inconclusive, giving rise to the hypothesis that the relationship may be non-linear. To date, there has been no study that specifically examines this hypothesis in the Asian region. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the non-linear relationship between the shadow economy and ecological footprint in 18 developing Asian countries during the period 2000–2022 using the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method with the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) approach. The results indicate the existence of an inverted-U shaped non-linear relationship between the shadow economy and ecological footprint.

Kata Kunci : shadow economy; ecological footprint; non-linear relationship; Panel ARDL-PMG; developing Asian countries