MODEL SISTEM DINAMIK TERKAIT KUALITAS AIR DANAU BATUR, BALI

Ni Kadek Reza Dwi Lestari, Dr. Daniel, MSc ; Dr. Annisa Utami Rauf, S.Pd.

2026 | Tesis | S2 Ilmu Kesehatan Masyarakat

Latar Belakang: Danau Batur merupakan danau vulkanik terbesar di Bali yang memiliki fungsi penting sebagai sumber air, perikanan, pertanian, dan pariwisata. Peningkatan aktivitas pertanian, budidaya ikan menggunakan Keramba Jaring Apung (KJA), serta aktivitas domestik berpotensi meningkatkan beban nutrien yang dapat menurunkan kualitas air danau. Kompleksitas interaksi antar faktor lingkungan, sosial, dan aktivitas manusia memerlukan pendekatan yang mampu menggambarkan dinamika sistem secara menyeluruh. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengembangkan Model Sistem Dinamik untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi kualitas air Danau Batur dan mengevaluasi alternatif pengelolaannya.

Metode: Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan mixed methods dengan desain exploratory sequential. Data kualitatif diperoleh melalui wawancara mendalam dan Focus Group Discussion (FGD) dengan pemangku kepentingan terkait. Data kuantitatif menggunakan data sekunder berupa parameter kualitas air (amonia, fosfat, dan nitrat) dan data pendukung lainnya. Analisis dilakukan melalui penyusunan Causal Loop Diagram (CLD), pengembangan Stock Flow Diagram (SFD), validasi model, dan simulasi skenario menggunakan perangkat lunak Vensim PLE.

Hasil: Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa aktivitas pertanian, budidaya ikan KJA, dan aktivitas domestik merupakan faktor utama yang berkontribusi terhadap peningkatan beban nutrien di Danau Batur. Faktor sosial seperti edukasi praktik ramah lingkungan, kesadaran masyarakat, dan penerapan regulasi berperan dalam mendukung pengendalian pencemaran. Simulasi skenario menunjukkan bahwa kombinasi intervensi pengurangan penggunaan pupuk kimia, pengendalian jumlah KJA, peningkatan edukasi lingkungan, dan penguatan regulasi memberikan hasil yang lebih baik dibandingkan intervensi tunggal.

Kesimpulan: Kualitas air Danau Batur dipengaruhi oleh interaksi berbagai faktor lingkungan, sosial, dan aktivitas antropogenik. Model Sistem Dinamik mampu menggambarkan hubungan antarvariabel serta mendukung penyusunan skenario pengelolaan kualitas air yang lebih adaptif dan berkelanjutan.

Background: Lake Batur is the largest volcanic lake in Bali and serves important functions as a source of water, fisheries, agriculture, and tourism. Increasing agricultural activities, floating net cage (FNC) aquaculture, and domestic activities have the potential to increase nutrient loads, which may contribute to the deterioration of lake water quality. The complexity of interactions among environmental, social, and anthropogenic factors requires an approach capable of capturing the dynamics of the system comprehensively. This study aimed to develop a System Dynamics Model to analyze the factors influencing Lake Batur's water quality and evaluate alternative management strategies.

Methods: This study employed a mixed-methods approach using an exploratory sequential design. Qualitative data were collected through in-depth interviews and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) involving relevant stakeholders. Quantitative data were obtained from secondary sources, including water quality parameters (ammonia, phosphate, and nitrate) and other supporting data. The analysis involved the development of a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD), construction of a Stock Flow Diagram (SFD), model validation, and scenario simulations using Vensim PLE software.

Results: The findings indicated that agricultural activities, floating net cage aquaculture, and domestic activities were the primary contributors to increased nutrient loads in Lake Batur. Social factors, including environmental education, community awareness, and regulatory implementation, played important roles in supporting pollution control efforts. Scenario simulations demonstrated that a combination of interventions, including reducing chemical fertilizer use, controlling the number of floating net cages, improving environmental education, and strengthening regulatory enforcement, produced better outcomes than individual interventions.

Conclusion: Lake Batur's water quality is influenced by the interaction of environmental, social, and anthropogenic factors. The System Dynamics Model was able to represent the relationships among variables and support the development of more adaptive and sustainable water quality management scenarios.

 

Kata Kunci : Danau Batur, kualitas air, sistem dinamik model, pengelolaan lingkungan.