Pengaruh Kinerja ESG terhadap Credit Rating dengan Foreign Ownership sebagai Variabel Moderasi

Salwa Alodia, I Wayan Nuka Lantara, M.Si., Ph.D.

2026 | Tesis | S2 Manajemen

Meningkatnya kesadaran global terhadap isu keberlanjutan telah secara fundamental mengubah paradigma lembaga pemeringkat dalam mengevaluasi risiko gagal bayar di pasar modal. Inkonsistensi temuan empiris mengenai hubungan antara Environmental, Social, and Governanve (ESG) dengan peringkat kredit, yang sebagian besar bersumber dari keterbatasan pendekatan skor ESG yang statis, mendorong kebutuhan akan proksi yang lebih dinamis berupa indikator peningkatan kinerja ESG. Kondisi ini semakin relevan di pasar modal Indonesia, di mana transisi keberlanjutan sering kali memunculkan dilema finansial jangka pendek, sementara kepemilikan asing telah berkembang menjadi mekanisme tata kelola eksternal yang penting untuk memitigasi asimetri informasi.

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh peningkatan kinerja ESG terhadap peringkat kredit dengan kepemilikan asing sebagai variabel moderasi. Sampel penelitian terdiri dari 27 perusahaan di Indonesia yang sesuai dengan kriteria penelitian selama periode 2020 hingga 2024. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan desain regresi data panel. Untuk mengatasi pelanggaran asumsi klasik dan masalah data ekstrem (outlier), pengujian hipotesis diestimasi menggunakan metode Generalized Least Squares (GLS) setelah data melalui tahapan winsorizing. 

Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan kinerja ESG tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap peringkat kredit. Hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa lembaga pemeringkat di pasar negara berkembang masih bersikap konservatif dan memprioritaskan indikator keuangan fundamental dibandingkan faktor non-finansial akibat tingginya ancaman greenwashing. Sebaliknya, foreign ownership dan rasio utang (leverage) terbukti berpengaruh signifikan secara langsung terhadap peringkat kredit. Foreign Ownership terbukti secara empiris menaikkan credit rating melalui efek sertifikasi, sementara tingginya rasio utang (leverage) secara signifikan menekan peringkat kredit seiring dengan meningkatnya risiko gagal bayar. Lebih lanjut, foreign ownership tidak terbukti memoderasi hubungan peningkatan kinerja ESG terhadap Credit Rating, melainkan beroperasi murni sebagai mekanisme independen. Secara keseluruhan, temuan ini memperkuat dan memperluas wawasan teoretis mengenai batasan efektivitas Signaling Theory serta menegaskan dominasi pengawasan asing secara langsung, khususnya dalam konteks pasar kredit yang berkembang.

Growing global awareness of sustainability issued has fundamentally shifted the paradigm of credit rating agencies in assessing default risk in capital markets. Inconsistencies in empirical findings regarding the relationship between Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors and credit ratings largely stemming from the limitations of static ESG scoring approaches have driven the need for more dynamic proxies in the form of indicators of improving ESG performance. This situation is particularly relevant in the Indonesian capital market, where the sustainability transition often creates short-term financial dilemmas, while foreign ownership has evolved into a crucial external governance mechanism for mitigating information asymmetry.

This study aims to analyze the impact of improved ESG performance on credit ratings, with foreign ownership serving as a moderating variable. The research sample consists of 27 companies in Indonesia that meet the study criteria for the period from 2020 to 2026. This study employs a quantitative approach using a panel data regression design. To address violations of classical assumptions and outlier issues, hypotesis testing was estimated using the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) method after the data underwent winsorization.

The research findings show that improvements in ESG performance do not have a significant impact on credit ratings. This indicates that rating agencies in emerging markets remain conservative and prioritize fundamental financial indicators over non-financial factors due to the high risk of greenwashing. Conversely, foreign ownership and debt ratios (leverage) were found to have a significant direct impact on credit ratings. Foreign ownership was empirically shown to raise credit ratings through a certification effect, while high debt ratios (leverage) significantly depress credit ratings as default risk increases. Furthermore, foreign ownership does not moderate the relationship between improved ESG performance and credit ratings; rather, it operates purely as an independent mechanism. Overall, these findings reinforce and expand theoretical insights regarding the limitations of the effectiveness of signaling Theory and confirm the dominance of direct foreign oversight, particularly in the context of emerging credit markets.

Kata Kunci : Kinerja ESG, Credit Rating, Foreign Ownership, Leverage, ESG Performance, Credit Rating, Foreign Ownership, Leverage