Dinamika Inflasi Pangan terhadap Daya Saing Ekspor Pangan Indonesia pada Berbagai Tingkat Pengolahan: Analisis Model NARDL dan ARDL

Chandra Puspa Pitaloka, Gigih Fitrianto, S.E., M.Sc., Ph.D.

2026 | Skripsi | ILMU EKONOMI

Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh inflasi pangan terhadap daya saing ekspor pangan Indonesia dengan mempertimbangkan dinamika jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Daya saing ekspor pangan dianalisis secara agregat dan berdasarkan tingkat pengolahan, yaitu berpengolahan rendah, menengah, dan tinggi. Metode yang digunakan adalah Autoregressive Distributed Lag-Error Correction Model (ARDL-ECM) dan Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag-Error Correction Model (NARDL-ECM), dengan menggunakan data bulanan 2013M01 – 2024M12. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan adanya hubungan jangka panjang yang asimetris antara inflasi pangan dan daya saing ekspor. Dalam jangka panjang, inflasi pangan berkorelasi positif dengan daya saing. Namun, dalam jangka pendek, inflasi pangan berdampak negatif terutama pada sektor berpengolahan rendah. Temuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa inflasi pangan merupakan determinan penting bagi daya saing ekspor sehingga pengelolaan inflasi yang stabil perlu disertai dengan penguatan struktur produksi dan peningkatan nilai tambah produk.

This study analyzes the impact of food inflation on the competitiveness of Indonesian food exports by considering both short-run and long-run dynamics. The competitiveness of food exports is analyzed in aggregate terms and based on the level of processing, namely low, medium, and high processing. The methods used are the Autoregressive Distributed Lag-Error Correction Model (ARDL-ECM) and the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag-Error Correction Model (NARDL-ECM), utilizing monthly data from January 2013 to December 2024. The research results show an asymmetric long-run relationship between food inflation and export competitiveness. In the long run, food inflation is positively correlated with competitiveness. However, in the short run, food inflation has a negative impact, especially on the low-processing sector. These findings indicate that food inflation is an important determinant of export competitiveness. Therefore, maintaining inflation stability should be accompanied by strengthening the production structure and enhancing product value added.

Kata Kunci : daya saing ekspor pangan, inflasi pangan, NARDL, tingkat nilai tambah, food export competitiveness, food inflation, value-added level