PERAMALAN PRODUKSI GETAH PINUS (Pinus merkusii Jungh. et de Vriese) BERDASARKAN DATA RUNTUN WAKTU (Kasus di BKPH Purworejo, KPH Kedu Selatan Perum Perhutani Unit I Jawa Tengah)

Sugito, Dr.Ir. Setyono Sastrosumarto

2003 | Skripsi | S1 KEHUTANAN

Gelah Pinus merupakan salah salu produk hasil hutan non kayu unggulan Perum Perhutani. Bahkan Pernm Perhutani menjadikan getah pinus sebagai primadona dari hasil hutan non kayu untuk meningkatkan pendapatan perusahaan. Penyadapan getah pinus disamping rnemerlukan perlakuan yang teliti dan cerniat, penaksiran hasil yang baik berperan penting dalam mencapai penghasilan yang optimal. Oleh karena itu penaksiran produksi getah pinus yang baik dipandang perlu dilakukan. l'enelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui keakuratan metode pemulusan eksponensial untuk peramalan produksi getah pinus per pohon per bulan berdasarkan data runtun waktu. Jenis model pemulusan yang diajukan adalah pcmulusan tunggal dan pcmulusan ganda dcngan trend linear dari Rrown. I ,okasi pcnelitian di BKPH Purworcjo, KPH Kcdu Sclalan, Pcrum Pcrhulani Unil I Jawa Tcngah. Kcakuralan mclodc pcmulusan cksponcnsial

Pine sap is one of a superior non-timber forest products of Perum Perhutani. Even, Perum Perhutani considers made pine sap as a prima-donna of non-timber forest products to increase the corporation earning. In pine tapping, besides the need of a cautious and careful treatment, good harvest estimation has an important role in achieving optimal corporation earning. That why it is necessary to obtain a good method to estimate the production of pine sap. This study aims to find out the accuracy of the exponential smoothing method in the forecasting of pine sap production per tree per month based on the time series data. The proposed smoothing models include the single exponential smoothing and the double exponential smoothing with hnear trend of Brown's. The location of this study is at BKPH Purworejo KPH South Kedu, Perum Perhutani Unit I Central Java. The accuracy or the exponential smoothing method is finds out by several simulation of forecasting based on the time series data, so the models obtain forecast error. Based on the simulation results, then the accuracy of the exponential smoothing method is defined generally. The results of this study reveal that the forecasting of sap production using the single exponential smoothing obtain a mean absolute percentage error is 10.61%, or the accuracy level of forecasting is 89.39%: on the other hand, the mean absolute percentage error with the double smoothing with linear is 10.63%, or the accuracy level is 89.37%. Based on these results, the exponential smooting method is considered sufficient (accurate) to forecast pine sap production. Furthermore, the application of the exponential smoothing method is relatively simple and inexpensive because it is supported by increasingly advanced computer (program) technology. In general, the exponential smoothing method is considered potential and worth implemented for the forecasting of pine sap production. In order to optimize the application of the exponential smoothing method, the results of the forecasting with the p

Kata Kunci : Gctah Pinus, Peramalan Produksi, Metode Pemulusan Eksponensial, Keakuratan