ANALISIS RISIKO PROYEK PEMBANGUNAN JALAN TOL TRANS SUMATERA RUAS RANTAU PRAPAT – KISARAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE RISK PROBABILITY AND IMPACT MATRIX DAN ROOT CAUSE ANALYSIS (RCA)

Agasi Habib Husein, Prof., Ir., Adi Djoko Guritno, M.S.I.E., Ph.D.

2026 | Tesis | S2 MANAJEMEN (MM) JAKARTA

Pembangunan jalan tol merupakan proyek infrastruktur dengan tingkat risiko yang tinggi, ditandai oleh besarnya nilai investasi yang dikeluarkan, tingkat kelayakan finansial yang relatif rendah, cakupan area pembangunan yang luas dengan karakteristik wilayah yang beragam, serta keterlibatan berbagai pemangku kepentingan pada setiap tahapan pelaksanaannya. Kondisi tersebut menjadikan penerapan manajemen risiko sebagai elemen krusial dalam mendukung keberhasilan proyek pembangunan jalan tol.

Penelitian ini mengacu pada standar ISO 31000:2018 dan PMBOK Edisi ke-6, yang mencakup tahapan manajemen risiko berupa identifikasi risiko, analisis risiko, dan perencanaan mitigasi risiko. Proses identifikasi risiko dilakukan melalui metode brainstorming, pengumpulan data, serta validasi oleh para pakar yang berpengalaman dalam perencanaan, pembangunan, dan pengoperasian jalan tol. Risiko yang telah teridentifikasi selanjutnya dianalisis menggunakan Cause and Effect Diagram (Fishbone Diagram) untuk mengidentifikasi akar penyebab permasalahan. Analisis tingkat risiko dilakukan dengan metode Risk Probability and Impact Matrix guna menentukan tingkat eksposur risiko (risiko inheren) melalui survei kepada responden yang berbeda. Perencanaan mitigasi risiko dilakukan melalui wawancara dengan responden terkait, kemudian dilanjutkan dengan perhitungan ulang tingkat eksposur risiko untuk memperoleh target risiko setelah mitigasi (target risiko residual / expected risk).

Tingkat eksposur risiko digunakan sebagai dasar dalam penetapan prioritas penanganan risiko (risk treatment). Hasil pemetaan risiko inheren menunjukkan terdapat 11 risiko dengan kategori Moderate to High, 7 risiko Moderate, dan 1 risiko Low to Moderate. Selanjutnya, disusun rencana mitigasi terhadap 19 risiko yang teridentifikasi. Berdasarkan hasil pemetaan target risiko residual / expected risk, diperoleh 1 risiko dengan kategori Moderate to High, 10 risiko Moderate, dan 8 risiko Low to Moderate. Temuan penelitian ini diharapkan dapat menjadi dasar dalam perumusan strategi manajemen risiko pada proyek Jalan Tol Trans Sumatera (JTTS) Tahap 3 Ruas Rantau Prapat - Kisaran.

The construction of toll roads is classified as a high-risk infrastructure project due to the substantial investment value required, relatively low financial feasibility, extensive development areas with diverse regional characteristics, and the involvement of multiple stakeholders throughout each stage of the project lifecycle. Therefore, the implementation of effective risk management is a critical factor in supporting the successful delivery of toll road projects.

This study refers to ISO 31000:2018 and the PMBOK 6th Edition, in which the risk management process consists of risk identification, risk analysis, and risk mitigation planning. Risk identification was conducted through brainstorming sessions, data collection, and validation by experts with experience in toll road planning, construction, and operation. The identified risks were then analyzed using a Cause-and-Effect Diagram (Fishbone Diagram) to determine the root causes of potential problems. Risk analysis was carried out using the Risk Probability and Impact Matrix method to determine the level of risk exposure (inherent risk) through surveys administered to different respondents. Risk mitigation planning was conducted through interviews with relevant respondents, followed by a reassessment of risk exposure levels to determine post-mitigation risk exposure (target residual risk / expected risk).

Risk exposure levels were used as the basis for determining risk treatment priorities. The results of inherent risk mapping identified 11 risks classified as Moderate to High, 7 risks as Moderate, and 1 risk as Low to Moderate. Subsequently, mitigation plans were developed for 19 identified risks. Based on the target residual risk mapping results, 1 risk was classified as Moderate to High, 10 risks as Moderate, and 8 risks as Low to Moderate. The findings of this study serve as a foundation for formulating risk management strategies for the Trans-Sumatra Toll Road (JTTS) Phase 3, Rantau Prapat - Kisaran Section.

Kata Kunci : Infrastructure Project, Risk Management Risk Probability and Impact Matrix, Cause and Effect Diagram / Fishbone Diagram, Inherent Risk, Target Residual Risk.