Pergeseran struktural di provinsi Sulawesi Selatan

TONGLO, Joni, Dr. Masykur Wiratmo, M.Sc

2005 | Tesis | Magister Ekonomika Pembangunan

Penelitian ini dilaksanakan di Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi pergeseran struktural sektor produksi, perubahan struktur ekonomi Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan dibandingkan perekonomian nasional periode 1970 – 2003 serta megidentifikasi sepuluh jenis perubahan struktur ekonomi periode 1993 – 2003. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder berupa jumlah penduduk, PDRB dan PDB harga deflator 1993, dan sepuluh jenis struktur ekonomi yaitu, pembentukan modal, pendapatan pemerintah, pendidikan, struktur permintaan domestik, struktur produksi, struktur perdagangan, alokasi tenaga kerja, urbanisasi, transisi demografi dan distribusi pendapatan. Alat analisis yang digunakan yaitu analisis pergeseran struktural, analisis model Chenery dan Syrquin dan analisis Shifts Share Klasik . Hasil analisis pergeseran struktural menunjukkan bahwa telah terjadi pergeseran dari sektor primer ke sektor tersier dalam kontribusinya bagi PDRB. Hasil analisis model Chenery dan Syrquin terhadap sepuluh jenis perubahan struktur ekonomi adalah: (1) pembentukan modal masih rendah di mana peningkatan tabungan domestik tidak diikuti peningkatan pembentukan modal domestik; (2) penerimaan pendapatan pemerintah meningkat khususnya di bidang perpajakan; (3) tingkat pendidikan dan respon pemerintah makin baik di mana tingkat anak-anak sekolah meningkat dan makin tingginya pengeluaran pemerintah untuk pendidikan; (4)struktur permintaan domestik memperlihatkan tingginya konsumsi pemerintah dan menurunnya konsumsi rumah tangga; (5) struktur perdagangan mengalami defisit ; (6) penyerapan tenaga kerja di sektor primer masih lebih besar dibandingkan sektor lainnya; (7) semakin tinggi tingkat kesejahteraan masyarakat di mana tingkat kelahiran dan kematian mengalami penurunan; (8)terlihat adanya pemerataan pendapatan dimana golongan penerima pendapatan tertinggi mengalami penurunan dan diikuti dengan penurunan golongan penerima pendapatan terendah. Hasil analisis Shift Share klasik menunjukkan pengaruh pertumbuhan nasional (Nij) terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan meningkat sebesar Rp10.600,50 milyar, daya dukung (Mij) sebesar minus Rp371,31 milyar, daya saing antar provinsi(Cij) meningkat sebesar Rp369,12 milyar sehingga pertumbuhan daerah Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan (Dij) sebesar Rp10.598,36 milyar.

This research is in the Province of South Sulawesi which aims to identify the structural change of production sector, the structure change of economy in the Province of South Sulawesi compared with the national economy in 1970 – 2003 and ten kinds structure change of the economy in 1993 – 2003. It uses secondary datas which are population number, the PDRB and PDB of deflator price in 1993, and ten kinds structure change of the economy. The ten kinds of the economy structure are capital establishment, government income, education, domestic demand structure, production structure, trade structure, labor allocation, urbanization, demography transition and income distribution. The analysis of this research uses are structural change, Chenery and Syrquin models , and classical shift share. The of structural change shows that there is a change from primary sector to tertiary sector in the contribution for PDRB. The result of Chenery and Syrquin models toward the ten kinds structure change of economy are (1) capital establishment is still low that the increase of economy is not followed by the of domestic capital establishment; (2) the acceptance government income increases especially in taxes; (3) the education level and government response in increase that there increases in the level of student and government expenditure for education; (4) the domestic demand structure shows the increase of government consumption and the decrease of household consumption; (5) the trade structure is deficit; (6) the labor absorption of primary sector is still bigger than the other sectors; (7) the society prosperity increases the death and birth levels decrease; (8) there is income even distribution that the highest group of income receivers and follwed by the decrease of the lowest of income receivers group. The result of classical shift share analysis shows that increases in the influence of national growth (Nij) to the economy growth the Province of South Sulawesi is Rp10,600.5 billion, the lowness of support power (Mij) decreases is Rp371.31 billion, competition power among province (Cij) is Rp369.12 billion, so that he region growth the Province of South Sulawesi (Dij) is Rp10,598.36 billion.

Kata Kunci : Struktur Ekonomi,Pergeseran,PDRB, structural change, Chenery and Syrquin models, Shift Share