DINAMIKA PERSAINGAN DAN NIAT ADOPSI PADA INDUSTRI MOBIL LISTRIK DI INDONESIA: ANALISIS PORTER’S-FIVE-FORCES DAN C-TAM-TPB

Rachel Yiska, Ertambang Nahartyo, Dr., M.Sc., CMA., Ak., CA.

2025 | Tesis | S2 MANAJEMEN (MM) JAKARTA

Krisis energi global dan meningkatnya tekanan terhadap ketergantungan BBM mendorong percepatan pengembangan kendaraan listrik di Indonesia. Di tengah dinamika global dan dorongan kebijakan strategis nasional, industri Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) menunjukkan perubahan struktur persaingan yang signifikan, ditandai oleh meningkatnya jumlah pemain, inovasi produk, dan masuknya merek-merek baru yang agresif melalui skema impor dan insentif fiskal. Penelitian ini bertujuan memahami dinamika persaingan tersebut serta mengidentifikasi arah niat adopsi konsumen terhadap BEV. Pendekatan embedded mixed-methods yang berfokus pada analisis kualitatif sebagai lapisan utama melalui Porter’s Five Forces dan PESTLE untuk memetakan intensitas persaingan melalui wawancara mendalam dengan industry experts, sementara struktur pasar dianalisis secara kuantitatif menggunakan Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) dan Concentration Ratio empat pemain terbesar (CR4). Lapisan kuantitatif tambahan dilakukan melalui survei berbasis kerangka Combined TAM-TPB untuk memahami persepsi dan niat adopsi konsumen terhadap BEV.

Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa persaingan industri BEV semakin intens seiring masuknya banyak merek baru, terutama dari Tiongkok, menawarkan harga kompetitif dan fitur unggul. Insentif fiskal menurunkan hambatan masuk, Dukungan insentif fiskal menurunkan hambatan masuk sehingga mendorong penyebaran pangsa pasar, tercermin dari penurunan HHI (0,2513 mejadi 0,1974), CR4 (85,1% menjadi 75,3%), menunjukkan struktur pasar masih berada pada kategori oligopoli ketat tetapi bergerak menuju tingkat persaingan yang lebih kompetitif. Analisis Porter menegaskan kuatnya ancaman pendatang baru dan posisi tawar pemasok pada komponen baterai. Analisis lingkungan eksternal mengonfirmasi bahwa faktor politik, insentif fiskal, dan agenda transisi energi menjadi pendorong utama ekspansi industri. Tantangan infrastruktur pengisian daya, ketergantungan teknologi impor, serta isu keberlanjutan sistem energi menjadi hambatan yang harus diantisipasi. Temuan C-TAM-TPB menunjukkan niat adopsi lebih dipicu oleh efisiensi biaya dan manfaat praktis. Price value menjadi determinan terkuat niat adopsi BEV, jauh melampaui faktor lingkungan, sementara pengaruh sosial ikut memperkuat minat dan hambatan terbesar tetap berasal dari kekhawatiran teknologi, infrastruktur, dan nilai jual kembali.

Berdasarkan temuan tersebut, penelitian ini merekomendasikan strategi bagi industri untuk memperkuat diferensiasi produk, meningkatkan keandalan baterai dan layanan after-sales, menjaga stabilitas harga, serta membangun kemitraan lokal untuk menekan biaya dan memenuhi target TKDN. Bagi regulator, konsistensi insentif, percepatan pembangunan infrastruktur pengisian daya, penyelarasan kebijakan energi, dan edukasi publik menjadi langkah penting untuk mempertahankan momentum adopsi BEV. Kolaborasi publik–swasta dalam pengembangan ekosistem, manufaktur baterai dipandang krusial agar transisi menuju kendaraan listrik berlangsung lebih inklusif, berkelanjutan, dan kompetitif.

The global energy crisis and the growing pressure to reduce dependence on fossil fuels have accelerated the development of electric vehicles in Indonesia. Amid global shifts and strong national policy momentum, the Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) industry has experienced significant changes in competitive structure, characterized by the rise of new entrants, rapid product innovation, and the aggressive expansion of new brands through import schemes and fiscal incentives. This study aims to examine these competitive dynamics and to identify the underlying drivers of consumer adoption intentions toward BEVs.

An embedded mixed-methods design is employed, with qualitative analysis as the primary layer using Porter’s Five Forces and PESTLE frameworks to assess competitive intensity based on in-depth interviews with industry experts. Market structure is examined quantitatively through HHI and CR4. A complementary quantitative layer is implemented through a consumer survey grounded in the Combined TAM-TPB framework to assess consumer perceptions and adoption intentions.

The findings indicate that competition in the BEV industry is intensifying as numerous new brands—particularly from China—enter the market with competitive pricing and strong product features. Fiscal incentives have lowered entry barriers and contributed to a wider distribution of market share, reflected in the decline of HHI (from 0.2513 to 0.1974) and CR4 (from 85.1% to 75.3%). These results show that while the market remains a tight oligopoly, it is gradually moving toward a more competitive structure. Porter’s analysis highlights high threats of new entrants and strong bargaining power of battery suppliers. External environmental analysis confirms that political factors, fiscal incentives, and the national energy-transition agenda are the key drivers of industry expansion, whereas charging-infrastructure limitations, reliance on imported technology, and broader energy-system sustainability issues remain structural challenges.

The C-TAM-TPB results reveal that adoption intentions are primarily driven by cost efficiency and practical benefits. Price value is the strongest determinant of BEV adoption intention—surpassing environmental considerations—while social influence also enhances consumer interest. The largest barriers relate to technological uncertainty, charging-infrastructure limitations, and concerns over resale value.

Based on these findings, the study recommends strategic initiatives for industry players including strengthening product differentiation, improving battery reliability and after-sales service, maintaining price stability, and developing local partnerships to reduce costs and support domestic-content requirements. For regulators, ensuring consistent incentives, accelerating charging-infrastructure development, aligning energy-policy frameworks, and strengthening public education are essential to sustaining the momentum of BEV adoption. Public–private collaboration in ecosystem development and domestic battery manufacturing is viewed as critical to achieving an inclusive, sustainable, and competitive transition toward electric mobility.

Kata Kunci : Mobil Listrik; Persaingan Industri; Lima Kekuatan Porter; PESTLE; Struktur Pasar; C-TAM-TPB