Climate Change and Income Inequality: Panel Evidence from 34 Indonesian Provinces, 2009-2023

Aulia Davetta Athif, Wisnu Setiadi Nugroho, S.E., M.Sc., M.A., Ph.D.

2025 | Skripsi | ILMU EKONOMI

Perubahan iklim merupakan isu global yang memengaruhi hampir setiap aspek masyarakat modern. Di Indonesia, dampak perubahan iklim terlihat dari peningkatan suhu rata-rata dan variabilitas curah hujan yang lebih besar. Meskipun banyak perhatian telah diberikan kepada dampaknya terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, penelitian mengenai pengaruhnya terhadap faktor-faktor sosio-ekonomi lainnya, seperti ketimpangan pendapatan, masih terbatas. Menggunakan dataset 34 provinsi di Indonesia selama periode 15 tahun dari 2009 hingga 2023 dan menerapkan teknik ekonometrika panel data, penelitian ini menganalisis hubungan antara perubahan iklim dan ketimpangan pendapatan di provinsi-provinsi tersebut. Penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa kenaikan suhu rata-rata dan peningkatan curah hujan memiliki korelasi positif yang signifikan dengan tingkat ketimpangan pendapatan di provinsi-provinsi Indonesia. Saluran dan timing di mana suhu dan curah hujan dapat mempengaruhi ketimpangan berbeda; suhu memiliki potensi dampak yang lebih cepat, sementara curah hujan cenderung mempengaruhi ketimpangan dalam jangka waktu yang lebih lama. Selain itu, hasil menunjukkan bahwa peran sektor pertanian terhadap ketimpangan tidak sederhana di provinsi-provinsi Indonesia. Karakteristik regional dan sosial-ekonomi yang spesifik menyebabkan jalur sektor pertanian berpotensi meredam dampak perubahan iklim bagi desil pendapatan rendah, sementara berdampak negatif bagi dasil pendapatan tinggi.

Climate change is a global issue affecting nearly every aspect of modern society. In Indonesia, the impact of climate change is visible in rising average temperatures and greater variability in precipitation. Although much attention has been given to its effects on economic growth, research on its impact on other socio-economic factors, such as income inequality, remains limited. Using a dataset of 34 Indonesian provinces over a 15-year period from 2009 to 2023 and employing panel data econometric techniques, this paper investigates the association between climate change and income inequality across these provinces. The findings indicate that rising average temperatures and increased precipitation have a considerable positive correlation with income inequality levels in Indonesian provinces. The channels and timing in which temperature and precipitation may influence inequality differ; temperature has a more immediate potential impact, while precipitation tends to affect inequality over a longer period. Additionally, the results show that the potential role of agriculture is not straightforward in Indonesian provinces. Specific regional and socioeconomic characteristics result in the agricultural pathway potentially cushioning the impact of climate change for low-income deciles, while being detrimental for upper-income deciles.

Kata Kunci : Climate Change, Income Inequality.