Dampak Layoff selama Pandemi COVID-19 terhadap Entrepreneurial Intention di Indonesia

Ahmad Nurdianto, Eny Sulistyaningrum, S.E., M.A., Ph.D.

2025 | Skripsi | ILMU EKONOMI

Pandemi COVID-19 mengakibatkan disrupsi ekonomi masif di Indonesia. Hal ini tecermin dari banyaknya perusahaan yang melakukan pemutusan hubungan kerja (PHK) sebagai langkah efisiensi selama pandemi COVID-19. Individu yang terdampak PHK harus melakukan transisi karir secara cepat dan tidak terencana akibat guncangan karir yang memberikan tekanan finansial. Alhasil, wirausaha dinilai sebagai alternatif transisi karir yang memungkinkan individu untuk mengembalikan penghidupan selama krisis. Dengan data cross section dari Sakernas Agustus 2020 dan Agustus 2021, penelitian ini berusaha mengetahui dampak PHK selama pandemi COVID-19 terhadap niat berwirausaha di Indonesia. Dalam hal ini, proksi niat berwirausaha diukur dari persiapan individu terkait pencarian modal, pencarian lokasi usaha, dan pengurusan izin usaha selama periode survei. Penelitian ini menggunakan model firthlogit sebagai alternatif model logit yang akan mengurangi bias hasil estimasi dalam analisis fenomena langka, seperti pandemi COVID-19. Secara umum, penelitian ini menemukan bahwa individu yang terkena PHK selama pandemi COVID-19 memiliki niat berwirausaha yang lebih tinggi daripada kelompok kontrol. Akan tetapi, temuan tersebut dapat bersifat heterogen tergantung skema analisis (year-on-year atau pooled) dan variabel kontrol yang diinteraksikan di dalam model. 

The COVID-19 pandemic led to massive economic disruption in Indonesia. This was reflected in the large number of companies that carried out layoffs (PHK) as an efficiency measure during the COVID-19 pandemic. Individuals affected by layoffs had to undergo a rapid and unplanned career transition due to career shocks that put financial pressure on them. As a result, entrepreneurship was seen as an alternative career transition that allowed individuals to restore their livelihoods during the crisis. Using cross-sectional data from Sakernas August 2020 and August 2021, this study seeks to determine the impact of layoffs during the COVID-19 pandemic on entrepreneurial intention in Indonesia. In this case, the proxy for entrepreneurial intention is measured by an individual's preparation related to seeking capital, finding business locations, and managing business permits during the survey period. This study uses the Firth logistic regression (firthlogit) model as an alternative to the standard logistic regression model, which will reduce bias in estimation results for rare phenomena analysis, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Generally, this study finds that individuals affected by layoffs during the COVID-19 pandemic have a higher entrepreneurial intention than the control group. However, these findings can be heterogeneous depending on the analysis scheme (year-on-year or pooled) and the control variables interacted within the model. 

Kata Kunci : Pandemi COVID-19, PHK, Guncangan Karir, Niat Berwirausaha