Studi Komparasi Volatilitas Harga Cabai Keriting Pasar Lelang dan Pasar Tradisional di Kabupaten Kulon Progo

Muhammad Agum Faris Kamal, Prof. Dr. Ir. Dwidjono Hadi Darwanto, S.U.; Arini Wahyu Utami, S.P., M.Sc., Ph.D.

2025 | Tesis | S2 Ekonomi Pertanian

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui perbandingan volatilitas harga cabai keriting di pasar lelang, pasar tradisional di Kabupaten Kulon Progo maupun Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta dan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi volatilitas tersebut. Data yang digunakan adalah data harga produsen di pasar lelang Bangun Karyo dan data Panel Harga Badan Pangan Nasional, Kabupaten Kulon Progo dan Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta dari bulan Juli 2022 hingga Oktober 2024 yang disajikan dalam bentuk menyesuaikan hari lelang. Analisis volatilitas menggunakan metode ARCH/GARCH. Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi volatilitas dianalisis menggunakan model Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa volatilitas harga cabai keriting di pasar lelang tergolong tinggi dan tidak berbeda dengan volatilitas di pasar tradisional yang juga masih tergolong tinggi. Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi volatilitas harga cabai keriting di pasar lelang yaitu harga cabai keriting di pasar lelang periode sebelumnya, harga cabai keriting di pasar tradisional periode sebelumnya, dan curah hujan dalam jangka panjang. Pada jangka pendek faktor-faktor tersebut tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Terdapat penyesuaian harga jangka panjang dan jangka pendek. Sedangkan faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi volatilitas harga cabai keriting di pasar tradisional di Kabupaten Kulon Progo maupun Provinsi Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta Adalah harga cabai keriting pasar tradisional periode sebelumnya, dapat meningkatkan volatilitas harga cabai keriting di pasar tradisional, sedangkan harga cabai keriting di pasar lelang dan curah hujan dapat menurunkan volatilitas harga cabai keriting di pasar tradisional dalam jangka Panjang. Sementara pada jangka pendek harga cabai keriting di pasar lelang maupun pasar tradisional, harga cabai rawit pasar lelang, dan curah hujan tidak berpengaruh terhadap volatilitas harga cabai keriting di pasar tradisional.

This study aims to determine the comparison of price volatility of curly chillies in auction markets, traditional markets in Kulon Progo Regency and the Special Region of Yogyakarta, and the factors that influence this volatility. The data used are producer price data from the Bangun Karyo auction market and National Food Agency price panel data for Kulon Progo Regency and the Special Region of Yogyakarta from July 2022 to October 2024, presented in a format adjusted to auction days. Volatility analysis used the ARCH/GARCH method. Factors influencing volatility were analysed using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The analysis results show that the price volatility of curly chillies in auction markets is relatively high and is not significantly different from the volatility in traditional markets, which is also relatively high. The factors that influence the volatility of curly chilli prices at auction markets are the price of curly chillies at auction markets in the previous period, the price of curly chillies in traditional markets in the previous period, and long-term rainfall. In the short term, these factors do not have a significant effect. There are long-term and short-term price adjustments. Meanwhile, the factors that influence the volatility of curly chilli prices in traditional markets in Kulon Progo Regency and the Special Region of Yogyakarta Province are the price of curly chillies in traditional markets in the previous period, which can increase the volatility of curly chilli prices in traditional markets, while the price of curly chillies in auction markets and rainfall can reduce the volatility of curly chilli prices in traditional markets in the long term. Meanwhile, in the short term, the price of curly chillies in auction markets and traditional markets, the price of cayenne pepper in auction markets, and rainfall do not affect the price volatility of curly chillies in traditional markets.

Kata Kunci : Volatility, Auction Market, Traditional Market, Curly Chili