THE EFFECT OF FUEL SUBSIDY POLICY ON THE NUMBER OF TRANSPORTATION MODE USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH

Estria Asi Putri , Prof. Ir. Bertha Maya Sopha, S.T., M.Sc., Ph.D. IPU. ASEAN Eng

2013 | Skripsi | S1 TEKNIK INDUSTRI

Subsidies in Indonesia have been aggravated national budget and come from high opportunity cost to spend on infrastructure, health, education, and other important areas. The government’s current plans to reduce subsidies are focused on fuel subsidy. The quantity of fuel subsidized depends on the utilization of transportation mode such as private vehicle and public transportation. This utilization is embedded in number of transportation mode. Regarding the cheap retail fuel price comparing with international fuel price, no prohibited amount consumption and limitation buyer of fuel subsidized, also poor public transportation service, the insensitive to buy and utilize private vehicle grows rapidly. This growth not only makes over-budget fuel subsidy but also causes some problems such as traffic congestion and air pollution. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct this research to examine the effect of fuel subsidy to the number of transportation mode through some policies planned by government. System dynamics is the effective tools to study about policy intervention especially on urban transportation. System dynamics is able to address the inter relationship effect among society, transportation-related stockholder and policy maker. The basic model was built to replicate the same behavior as reference mode. Then, a scenario was developed based on government plan to redirect allocation of fuel subsidy to subsidizing public transportation sector. The result shows that fuel subsidy withdrawal and reallocation budget for public transportation sector would decrease the number of private vehicle and give incentives for using public transportation.

Kata Kunci : system dynamics, transportation, vehicle, subsidy, policy, fuel