Persepsi dan Strategi Adaptasi Masyarakat KHDTK Sisimeni Sanam Terhadap Perubahan Iklim

Gamal Arya Widagdo, Prof. Dr. Ir. Ris Hadi Purwanto, M.Agr.Sc., IPU ; Ir. Dwiko Budi Permadi, S.Hut., M.Sc., Ph.D., IPU

2025 | Tesis | S2 Ilmu Kehutanan

Perubahan iklim memberikan tantangan yang signifikan bagi masyarakat yang bergantung pada hutan, terutama di daerah semi arid seperti Nusa Tenggara Timur. Banyak penelitian yang mengkaji tentang dampak perubahan iklim terhadap masyarakat, namun masih sedikit perhatian yang diberikan pada persepsi dan strategi adaptasi masyarakat yang bergantung pada kawasan hutan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis hubungan persepsi perubahan iklim dan strategi adaptasi perubahan iklim masyarakat di Kawasan Hutan Dengan Tujuan Khusus (KHDTK) Sisimeni Sanam.

Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) dan Climate Change Risk Perception Model (CCRPM) untuk menjelaskan persepsi perubahan iklim. Pengumpulan data dilakukan dengan cara sensus terhadap 114 anggota kelompok tani hutan. Data kemudian dianalisis menggunakan statistik deskriptif dan SEM-PLS (Structural Equation Modeling-Partial Least Square).

Temuan penelitian ini menunjukkan terdapat variasi pendapat masyarakat terkait pemahaman tentang perubahan iklim, penyebab dan dampaknya. Masyarakat lebih mampu mengidentifikasi dampak perubahan iklim daripada penyebabnya. Variasi pengalaman masyarakat dalam menghadapi perubahan iklim menunjukkan bahwa masyarakat lebih mampu merasakan perubahan pola curah hujan daripada peningkatan suhu, masyarakat juga lebih melihat perubahan iklim sebagai ancaman daripada dampak sesaat bagi produktivitas hasil hutan bukan kayu. Masyarakat telah mengembangkan berbagai strategi adaptasi, termasuk pendekatan berbasis lahan (on farm) dan non lahan (off farm). Masyarakat merasa bahwa pemilihan jenis tanaman yang bernilai pasar tinggi, adaptif terhadap cuaca ekstrem dan penggunaan bibit unggul lebih mampu mengurangi ancaman perubahan iklim daripada pemeliharaan tanaman, perluasan lahan dan wanatani. Diversifikasi mata pencaharian lebih banyak diminati masyarakat daripada pemberian nilai tambah produk karena masyarakat lebih terbiasa dengan pekerjaan yang tidak membutuhkan ketrampilan baru. Analisis SEM-PLS menunjukkan bahwa pengetahuan dan pengalaman lebih mampu menjadi faktor penentu penerapan strategi adaptasi on farm daripada off farm, sedangkan kesediaan beradaptasi tidak cukup kuat untuk menentukan perilaku adaptasi masyarakat. Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa penerapan strategi adaptasi perubahan iklim dipengaruhi oleh tingkat pengetahuan dan pengalaman masyarakat dalam menghadapi dampak perubahan iklim. Temuan ini dapat menjadi masukan bagi pengembangan kebijakan dan perencanaan program adaptasi dalam menghadapi tantangan perubahan iklim.

Climate change poses significant challenges for forest-dependent communities, especially in semi-arid regions such as East Nusa Tenggara. Many studies have examined the impacts of climate change on communities, but little attention has been paid to the perceptions and adaptation strategies of forest-dependent communities. This study aims to analyze the relationship between climate change perceptions and climate change adaptation strategies of communities in the Sisimeni Sanam Special Purpose Forest Area (KHDTK).

This research uses the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) and Climate Change Risk Perception Model (CCRPM) approach to explain climate change perceptions. Data collection was conducted using a census of 114 forest farmer group members. Data were then analyzed using descriptive statistics and SEM-PLS (Structural Equation Modeling-Partial Least Square).

The findings of this study show that there are variations in community opinions regarding the understanding of climate change, its causes and impacts. People are better able to identify the impacts of climate change than its causes. Variations in community experience in dealing with climate change show that communities are more able to perceive changes in rainfall patterns than increases in temperature, communities also see climate change as a threat rather than a momentary impact on the productivity of non-timber forest products. Communities have developed various adaptation strategies, including on-farm and off-farm approaches. Communities feel that the selection of high market value, extreme weather-adaptive crops and the use of improved seedlings are more capable of mitigating the threat of climate change than crop maintenance, land expansion and agroforestry. Livelihood diversification is more popular than value-added products because people are more accustomed to jobs that do not require new skills. SEM-PLS analysis shows that knowledge and experience are more capable of being determinants of the application of adaptation strategies on farm than off farm, while the willingness to adapt is not strong enough to determine community adaptation behavior. This study concludes that the implementation of climate change adaptation strategies is influenced by the level of knowledge and experience of the community in dealing with the impacts of climate change. These findings can be an input for policy development and adaptation program planning in facing the challenges of climate change.

Kata Kunci : Persepsi perubahan iklim, Strategi adaptasi, SEM-PLS