Analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi prepayment rate pada pricing kontrak investasi kolektif efek beragunan aset (KIK-EBA) di Indonesia

PENTA, Mochamad Yut, Dr. Supriyadi, M.Sc

2004 | Tesis | Magister Manajemen

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi prepayment rate KIK-EBA dengan underlying asset KPR. Hipotesis yang dikembangkan menyatakan bahwa variabel-variabel suku bunga KPR (BBT), perbedaan suku bunga KPR dengan suku bunga SBI (DBS), inflasi (INF), umur KPR (UKP) dan musim (MSM) baik secara bersama-sama maupun parsial mempengaruhi variabel prepayment rate (PRATE). Pengujian dibedakan ke dalam dua kelompok model yaitu model untuk debitur KPR menengah-atas (PRATE-a) dan model untuk debitur menengah-bawah (PRATE-b). Penelitian ini mempergunakan data pembayaran angsuran debitur KPR Bank BTN sebanyak 989 debitur sampel selama periode waktu Januari 1994 – Desember 2001. Metode statistik yang digunakan adalah analisis regresi berganda. Hasil penelitan menunjukkan bahwa seluruh variabel, kecuali variabel perbedaan suku bunga KPR dengan suku bunga SBI (DBS), secara bersamasama dan parsial berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap prepayment rate kedua kelompok model (p<0,05). Variabel suku bunga (BBT), umur KPR (UKP) dan musim (MSM) berpengaruh secara signifikan dengan hubungan positif sedangkan variabel inflasi (INF) berpengaruh secara signifikan dengan hubungan negatif. Hasil penelitian menyimpulkan pula bahwa variabel suku bunga KPR (BBT) dan inflasi (INF) mempunyai pengaruh yang lebih besar terhadap prepayment rate kelompok menengah-atas (PRATE-a) diandingkan terhadap preyament rate kelompok menengahbawah (PRATE-b).

The purpose of this research is to identified the factors that influence the prepayment rate of KIK-EBA with underlying asseet of mortgage. The Hypothesis stated that mortgage rate (BBT), gap between mortgage rate and SBI’s rate (DBS), inflation (INF), mortgage age (UKP), and season (MSM) are simultaneously and partialy influence th prepayment rate (PRATE). The test conducted on two different groups that is middle-upper debtors (PRATE-a) and middle-lower debtors (PRATE-b). This research obtained data from data payment of Bank BTN’s mortgage debtors as many as 989 debtors in period of January 1994 to December 2001. The data was analyzed by statistical method of multiple regression. The research finding show that all variables but gap between mortgage rate and SBI’s rate, are simultaneously and partially significant to both middlelower prepayment rate and middle-upper prepayment rate (p<0.05). Mortgage rate (BBT), mortgage age (UKP) and season (MSM) are statistically significant and have positive effect on prepayment rate. However, inflation (INF) is statistically significant and has negative effect on prepayment rate. The result also shows that mortgage rate (BBT) and inflation (INF) have greater effect on prepayment of middle-upper(PRATEa) debtors than prepayment of middle-lower debtors (PRATE-B).

Kata Kunci : suku bunga KPR, perbedaan suku bunga KPR dengan suku bunga SBI, inflasi, umur KPR, musim, prepayment rate, mortgage rate, gap between mortgage rate and SBI’s rate, inflation, mortgage age, season