Pengaruh COVID-19 terhadap Pembangunan Ekonomi Global

Wulan Suci, Prof. Dr. Samsubar Saleh, M.Soc.Sc., ; Dr. Duddy Roesmara Donna, S.E., M.Si.,

2024 | Tesis | S2 Agama dan Lintas Budaya

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh pandemi COVID-19 terhadap pembangunan ekonomi global. Untuk mengukur pembangunan ekonomi dibuat tiga indikator yang kemudian dikembangkan menjadi variabel dependen yaitu pertumbuhan PDB, inflasi dan pengangguran. Sedangkan untuk menganalisis COVID-19 diukur melalui jumlah kasus terkonfirmasi COVID-19, jumlah kematian terkonfirmasi COVID-19 dan indeks keketatan lockdown. Melalui pendekatan kuantitatif, data sekunder dari World Development Indicator dan Our World in Data dengan rentang waktu 2020 hingga 2022. Jumlah observasi penelitian ini sebanyak 285 dengan total 95 negara. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukan pengaruh Pandemi COVID-19 terhadap pembangunan ekonomi global dengan temuan sebagai berikut. Pertama bahwa pandemi COVID-19 berpengaruh terhadap PDB ekonomi global melalui variabel jumlah kasus terkonfirmasi COVID-19 yang berpengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan PDB, Kedua pandemi COVID-19 berpengaruh terhadap inflasi melalui variabel keketatan lockdown (stringency index) yang berpengaruh negatif terhadap inflasi dan ketiga Pandemi COVID-19 berpengaruh terhadap pengangguran melalui variabel keketatan lockdown (Stringency Index) yang berpengaruh positif terhadap pengangguran. Dengan temuan ini diharapkan Pemerintah dapat lebih fokus dalam upaya mendorong pemulihan perekonomian dengan mendorong pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB), menstabilkan inflasi dan mengurangi pengangguran.

The purpose of this study is to examine how the COVID-19 epidemic has affected global economic growth. GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment are the three indicators that were turned into dependent variables in order to quantify economic development. In the meantime, the strictness index, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, and the number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths are used to analyze COVID-19. Secondary data from the World Development Indicator and Our World in Data covering the years 2020 to 2022 were analyzed quantitatively. In this study, 285 observations from 95 different countries were made.  The results of this research show the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on global economic development with the following findings. Firstly, the COVID-19 pandemic has an effect on global economic GDP through the variable number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 which has a negative effect on GDP growth. Second, the COVID-19 pandemic has an effect on inflation through the lockdown stringency variable (stringency index) which has a negative effect on inflation. And thirdly, the pandemic COVID-19 affects unemployment through the lockdown stringency variable (Stringency Index) which has a positive effect on unemployment. With these findings, it is hoped that the Government can focus more on efforts to encourage economic recovery by encouraging gross domestic product (GDP) growth, stabilizing inflation and reducing unemployment.

Kata Kunci : COVID-19, Pembangunan Ekonomi, Produk Domestik Bruto, Inflasi, Pengangguran