Analisis Tren Migrasi Penduduk Kota Jambi Sebelum dan Sesudah Memasuki Masa Pandemi Covid-19

Muhammad Raidan Azani, Ratih Fitria Putri, S.Si., M.Sc., Ph.D.

2023 | Skripsi | GEOGRAFI DAN ILMU LINGKUNGAN

Migrasi adalah salah satu faktor yang mempengaruhi pertumbuhan penduduk di Kota Jambi. Kota Jambi merupakan salah satu wilayah yang terdampak penyebaran Covid-19. Penyebaran Covid-19 atau virus corona telah menyebabkan pembatasan terhadap migrasi di Kota Jambi. Tujuan penelitian adalah untuk menganalisis tren migrasi penduduk sebelum dan sesudah memasuki masa pandemi Covid-19 dan bagaimana hubungan jumlah kasus pandemi Covid-19 dengan migrasi penduduk di Kota Jambi. Penelitian menggunakan metode inferensial dengan dukungan hasil pengolahan data sekunder yang diperoleh dari Dinas Kependudukan dan Pencatatan Sipil dan Dinas Kesehatan Kota Jambi. Hubungan jumlah kasus Covid-19 dan jumlah migrasi penduduk Kota Jambi dianalisis dengan analisis regresi linear. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa jumlah kasus positif, sembuh, dan meninggal dunia akibat Covid-19 di Kota Jambi mencapai puncak pada Juli-Agustus Tahun 2021. Jumlah migrasi antar kabupaten/kota dan antar Provinsi paling tinggi terjadi pada Tahun 2017 (sebelum pandemi Covid-19), karena pertumbuhan ekonomi Kota Jambi lebih tinggi dibandingkan pertumbuhan ekonomi Provinsi Jambi dan nasional. Tren jumlah migrasi antar kabupaten/kota di Kota Jambi bersifat fluktuatif. Sedangkan jumlah migrasi antar provinsi pada sebelum pandemi Covid-19 menunjukkan tren lebih tinggi dibandingkan pada masa pandemi Covid-19. Namun keduanya menunjukkan nilai positif, baik sebelum maupun pada masa pandemi Covid-19. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa jumlah kasus Covid-19 tidak selalu berhubungan secara linear dengan migrasi di Kota Jambi, sesuai dengan hasil analisis regresi yang menunjukkan p-value>0,05 dan nilai koefisien determinasi (R2) yang <0>

Migration is one of the factors that influences population growth in Jambi City. Jambi City is one of the areas affected by the spread of Covid-19. The spread of Covid-19 or the corona virus has caused restrictions on migration in Jambi City. The aim of the research is to analyze population migration trends before and after entering the Covid-19 pandemic and how the number of Covid-19 pandemic cases is related to population migration in Jambi City. The research uses an inferential method with the support of secondary data processing results obtained from the Population and Civil Registration Service and the Jambi City Health Service. The relationship between the number of Covid-19 cases and the number of migrations of Jambi City residents was analyzed using linear regression analysis. The research results show that the number of positive cases, recoveries and deaths due to Covid-19 in Jambi City reached its peak in July-August 2021. The highest number of migration between districts/cities and between provinces occurred in 2017 (before the Covid-19 pandemic), because the economic growth of Jambi City is higher than the economic growth of Jambi Province and the national economy. The trend in the number of migration between districts/cities in Jambi City is fluctuating. Meanwhile, the number of migration between provinces before the Covid-19 pandemic showed a higher trend than during the Covid-19 pandemic. However, both showed positive values, both before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. This shows that the number of Covid-19 cases is not always linearly related to migration in Jambi City, according to the results of the regression analysis which shows a p-value>0.05 and a coefficient of determination (R2) value of <0>

Kata Kunci : Mobilitas Penduduk, Migrasi, Covid-19, Pandemi