Dampak Integrasi Perdagangan Asia Tenggara dan Asia Timur terhadap Kondisi Makroekonomi dan Sektoral Indonesia: Simulasi Model Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Database 9

Arivia Fikratuz Zakia, Diny Ghuzini, S.E., M.Ec., Ph.D.

2023 | Tesis | S2 Ilmu Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan

Penelitian ini menganalisis dampak integrasi perdagangan Asia Tenggara dan Asia Timur terhadap kondisi makroekonomi negara anggota dan sektoral Indonesia. Analisis dilakukan melalui empat simulasi skenario penerapan tarif pada model GTAP. Keempat simulasi terdiri atas penerapan tarif sesuai dengan framework agrement ACFTA, AKFTA, AJCEP, serta gabungan ketiganya sebagai proksi ASEAN+3 FTA. Hasil analisis menunjukkan peningkatan indeks harga PDB dan pertumbuhan nilai PDB banyak didapatkan negara anggota pada simulasi AKFTA. Simulasi ASEAN+3 memberikan dampak peningkatan kesejahteraan terbesar dibandingkan simulasi lainnya, sejalan dengan peningkatan defisit neraca perdagangan negara-negara anggota. Indonesia diprediksi akan mengalami kenaikan output, ekspor, dan ketenagakerjaan serta penurunan impor komoditas terbanyak pada simulasi AJCEP. Meskipun demikian, secara keseluruhan simulasi proksi ASEAN+3 diprediksi berdampak relatif lebih baik terhadap sektoral Indonesia dibandingkan ACFTA dan AKFTA. 

This research examines the impact of trade integration between Southeast Asia and East Asia on the macroeconomic conditions of member countries and sectors in Indonesia. The analysis is conducted through four simulation scenarios involving tariff applications using the GTAP model. These four simulations consist of tariff applications in accordance with the ACFTA, AKFTA, AJCEP frameworks, as well as a combination of all three as a proxy for the ASEAN+3 FTA. The analysis results indicate that an increase in the GDP price index and GDP growth is largely observed among member countries in the AKFTA simulation. The ASEAN+3 simulation provides the greatest increase in welfare compared to the other simulations, in line with the rising trade deficits of member countries. Indonesia is predicted to experience an increase in output, exports, and employment, as well as a decrease in imports of most commodities in the AJCEP simulation. However, overall, the ASEAN+3 proxy simulation is predicted to have a relatively better impact on Indonesia's sectors compared to ACFTA and AKFTA.

Kata Kunci : ASEAN, GTAP model, tarif preferensi