Ekspor Cengkeh Indonesia di Pasar Dunia

RINDA NUR ROHMAH SUJIONO, Dr, Jangkung Handoyo Mulyo, M.Ec;Arini Wahyu Utami, M.Sc., Ph.D

2023 | Tesis | S2 Ekonomi Pertanian

Pandemi Covid-19 menurunkan perekonomian Indonesia. Meskipun mengalami penurunan, terdapat beberapa sektor yang masih memiliki nilai pertumbuhan positif, salah satunya sektor pertanian.  Penyebabnya karena terdapat komoditas yang justru mengalami peningkatan volume ekspor, salah satunya komoditas cengkeh. Penelitian bertujuan untuk 1) mengetahui tren volume eskpor cengkeh Indonesia di pasar dunia. 2) mengetahui faktor yang mempengaruhi volume ekspor cengkeh Indonesia selama pandemi Covid-19. 3) memprediksi volume ekspor cengkeh Indonesia di pasar dunia. Tujuan tersebut di analasis dengan membagi tiga periode yaitu sebelum pandemi Covid-19, selama pandemi Covid-19, dan new normal.  Penelitian menggunakan data sekunder yang diperoleh dari Trademap dan Bank Indonesia. Data yang digunakan adalah time series bulanan (Januari 2010-Juli 2022). Tren volume ekspor cengkeh Indonesia di pasar dunia dianalisis menggunakan least square method. Faktor yang mempengaruhi volume ekspor cengkeh Indonesia dianalisis menggunakan regresi semi-log dengan volume ekspor cengkeh sebagai variabel terikat sedangkan variabel bebasnya yaitu nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap USD, harga cengkeh Indonesia di pasar dunia, harga cengkeh Madagascar di pasar dunia, nilai RCA cengkeh Indonesia, dummy selama pandemi Covid-19, dan dummy new normal. Prediksi volume ekspor cengkeh Indonesia periode April 2023 -Maret 2024 dilakukan dengan holt’s two-parameter linear exponential-smoothing. Hasil analisis menunjukan 1) tren volume ekspor cengkeh Indonesia di pasar dunia meningkat. 2) harga cengkeh negara pesaing (Madgascar), nilai RCA cengkeh Indonesia, dan new normal meningkatkan volume ekspor cengkeh Indonesia sedangkan harga cengkeh Indonesia menurunkan volume ekspor cengkeh Indonesia. Nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap USD dan selama pandemi Covid-19 tidak berpengaruh terhadap volume ekspor cengkeh Indonesia. 3) prediksi volume ekspor cengkeh Indonesia di pasar dunia menunjukan trend meningkat selama periode yang diprediksi.

The Covid-19 pandemic has reduced Indonesia's economy. Despite the decline, there are several sectors that still have positive growth values, one of which is the agricultural sector. There are commodities that have actually experienced an increase in export volume, such as clove commodity. The study aims to 1) determine the trend of Indonesia's clove export volume in world market. 2) determine the factors that affect Indonesia’s clove export volume during the Covid-19 pandemic. 3) prediction of Indonesia’s clove export volume in world market. These objectives are analyzed by dividing three periods, namely before the Covid-19 pandemic, during the Covid-19 pandemic, and new normal. The study uses secondary data obtained from Trademap and Bank Indonesia. The data used is a monthly time series (January 2010-July 2022). The trend of Indonesia's clove export volume in the world market is analyzed using the least square method. Factors affecting the volume of Indonesian clove exports were analyzed using semi-log regression with the volume of clove exports as the dependent variable while the independent variables were the Rupiah exchange rate against the USD, the price of Indonesian cloves in the world market, the price of Madagascar cloves in the world market, the RCA value of Indonesian cloves, the dummy during the Covid-19 pandemic, and the new normal dummy. Prediction of Indonesia's clove export volume for the period April 2023-March 2024 was carried out with Holt's two-parameter linear exponential-smoothing. The results of the analysis show that 1) the trend of Indonesia's clove export volume in the world market is increasing. 2) the price of cloves of competitor country (Madgascar), the RCA value of Indonesian cloves, and the new normal increase the volume of Indonesian clove exports while the price of Indonesian cloves decreases the volume of Indonesian clove exports. The exchange rate of Rupiah against USD and during the Covid-19 pandemic has no effect on the export volume of Indonesian cloves. 3) The prediction of the export volume of Indonesian cloves in the world market shows an increasing trend during the prediction periode.

Kata Kunci : ekspor cengkeh, least square method, regresi semi-log, exponential smoothing