Model Keinginan Memiliki Anak pada Ibu Pasca Bencana di Palu

ABD. RAHMAN, Prof. Dr. Sri Rum Giyarsih, M.Si ; Dr. Sigit Heru Murti BS, S.Si., M.Si

2023 | Disertasi | DOKTOR KEPENDUDUKAN

Penelitian ini bertujuan Membuat distribusi karakteristik sosial ekonomi, riwayat kesehatan reproduksi dan karakteristik keinginan memiliki anak. Mengkaji pengaruh jenis bencana dan letak geografis (gempa, tsunami, dan likuifaksi) terhadap keinginan ibu untuk memiliki anak.Pemetaan distribusi ibu yang ingin memiliki anak. Menyusun model keinginan memiliki anak berdasarkan pendekatan regresi logistik dengan melihat pengaruh jenis bencana dan letak geografis secara simultan dan odds ratio, serta membuat pemodelan Analisis Hirarki Proses (AHP) dan spasial menggunakan teknik overlay untuk memetakan keinginan memiliki anak. Jenis penelitian kuantitatif dengan cross sectional. Populasi adalah seluruh ibu di lima kecamatan yang terdampak paling parah berjumlah 52.053. Adapun sampel didapatkan sebesar 382 ibu dengan teknik pengambilan sampel secara Diproporsional stratified random sampling. Analisis data menggunakan uji chi-square, pemodelan dalam penelitian menggunakan regresi logistik, spasial menggunakan teknik overlay dan Analysis Hirarki Proses (AHP). Hasil penelitian berdasarkan uji chi-square variabel jenis bencana dengan nilai p= 0,011 dan dan letak geografis p= 0,038, hasil menunjukkan terdapat pengaruh signifikan antara jenis bencana (gempa, tsunami, likuifaksi) dan letak geografis terhadap keinginan memiliki anak. Hasil uji regresi logistik berdasarkan uji simultan didapatkan nilai p= 0,007 artinya bahwa secara bersama-sama jenis bencana dan letak geografis berpengaruh sangat signifikan terhadap keinginan memiliki anak pada ibu pasca bencana. Sementara berdasarkan odds ratio jenis bencana p= 0,004 OR=1,674 dan letak geografis 0,007 OR=1,293. Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa ibu terdampak bencana memiliki peluang 1,674 kali mempunyai keinginan memiliki anak dan ibu yang tinggal di daerah sangat rawan terjadi bencana berpeluang 1,293 kali mempunyai keinginan memiliki anak. Artinya sebagian besar ibu (125 ibu) dari 234 ibu yang ingin memiliki anak mengalami perubahan perilaku dalam bentuk persepsi ingin memiliki anak disebabkan karena bencana. sementara yang ingin memiliki anak sebelum bencana terjadi atau tidak ada kaitanya dengan bencana sebesar 109 ibu. Berdasarkan nilai R square menunjukkan variabel independen dapat menjelaskan variabel dependen sebesar 0,258 atau 25,8%. Hasil pemodelan AHP didapatkan bahwa parameter area terdampak bencana memiliki prioritas yang tinggi, dimana area tersebut memiliki kecenderungan terhadap keinginan memiliki anak. Hal tersebut dibuktikan dengan analisis overlay yang menggambarkan sebagian besar wilayah berkontribusi terhadap keinginan memiliki anak dan yang tertinggi pada Kecamatan Ulujadi dan Mantikulore. Kesimpulan penelitian adalah jenis bencana dan letak geografis berpengaruh terhadap keinginan memiliki anak artinya bahwa ibu yang mengalami bencana dan yang tinggal di zona rawan bencana memiliki risiko mempunyai keinginan memiliki anak dibandingkan ibu yang tidak mengalami bencana dan tidak tinggal di zona rawan bencana. Sebesar 25,8% variabel independen dapat menjelaskan variabel dependen.

This study aims to determine the distribution of socioeconomic characteristics, history of reproductive health, and characteristics of the desire to have children. Assessing the effect of the type of disaster and geographic location (earthquake, tsunami, and liquefaction) on the desire of mothers to have children. Mapping the distribution of mothers who want to have children. Developing a model of the desire to have children based on a logistic regression approach by looking at the effect of the type of disaster and geographical location simultaneously and the odds ratio, as well as making Process Hierarchy Analysis (AHP) and spatial modeling using overlay techniques to map the desire to have children. This type of quantitative research with cross-sectional. The population is all mothers in the five worst affected sub-districts totaling 52,053. The sample obtained was 382 mothers with the sampling technique using a disproportional stratified random sampling. Data analysis used the chi-square test, modeling in the study used logistic regression, spatially used overlay techniques, and Analysis Hierarchy Process (AHP). The results of the study were based on the chi-square test for the variable type of disaster with a value of p = 0.011 and geographical location of p = 0.038, the results showed that there was a significant influence between the type of disaster (earthquake, tsunami, liquefaction) and geographic location on the desire to have children. The results of the logistic regression test based on the simultaneous test obtained a value of p = 0.007 meaning that together the type of disaster and geographical location had a very significant effect on the desire to have children in post-disaster mothers. While based on the odds ratio for the type of disaster p = 0.004 OR = 1.674 and geographical location 0.007 OR = 1.293. These results show that mothers affected by disasters have a 1.674 times chance of wanting to have children and mothers who live in areas highly prone to disasters have a 1.293 times chance of wanting to have children. This means that most of the mothers (125 mothers) out of 234 mothers who wanted to have children experienced changes in behavior in the form of perceptions of wanting to have children due to the disaster. while those who wanted to have children before the disaster occurred or had nothing to do with the disaster amounted to 109 mothers. Based on the R square value, it shows that the independent variable can explain the dependent variable by 0.258 or 25.8%. The results of the AHP modeling show that the parameters of the disaster-affected area have a high priority, where the area tends to have children. This is evidenced by the overlay analysis which illustrates that most areas contribute to the desire to have children and the highest are Ulujadi and Mantikulore Districts. The study concludes that the type of disaster and geographic location affect the desire to have children, meaning that mothers who experience disasters and who live in disaster-prone zones have a risk of wanting to have children compared to mothers who do not experience disasters and do not live in disaster-prone zones. 25.8% of the independent variables can explain the dependent variable.

Kata Kunci : Model Keinginan Memiliki Anak, Pascabencana/Model of Desire to Have Children, Post-disaster