BUSINESS ANALYSIS AND VALUATION OF VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS (VWS)

SUBANDI, Prof. Amin Wibowo, Ph.D. ; Rr Tur Nastiti, M.Si., Ph.D.

2022 | Tesis | Magister Manajemen

Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk memberikan estimasi target harga saham Vestas pada akhir tahun 2022 dengan menggunakan model Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) dan memberikan rekomendasi keputusan investasi apakah akan membeli, menahan, atau menjual saham dengan membandingkan nilai pasar Vestas dengan nilai estimasi target. Untuk melakukan valuasi, data satu dekade terakhir laporan keuangan dan serangkaian asumsi digunakan untuk menghitung free cash flow to the firm (FCFF). Menurut model DCF, jumlah FCFF dan terminal value diskontokan kembali ke nilai sekarang dengan tingkat pertumbuhan perpetuitas 3,3 persen dan biaya modal rata-rata tertimbang 9,97 persen sebagai tingkat diskonto menghasilkan nilai perusahaan sebesar 30.726 juta Euro dan nilai ekuitas 32.569 juta Euro. Pada akhir tahun 2022, nilai per lembar saham diperkirakan sebesar 32,25 Euro. Dibandingkan dengan nilai pasar pada 30 Juli 2022 yang ditutup pada harga 25,52 Euro, harga target memiliki potensi kenaikan sebesar 26,26 persen, yang berarti harga target undervalued oleh pasar. Sensitivity analysis dilakukan untuk menilai seberapa sensitif model terhadap perubahan asumsi yang mendasarinya. Selain itu, untuk mendukung rekomendasi, dilakukan Relative Valuation dengan membandingkan kinerja keuangan Vestas terhadap kompetitornya menggunakan multiples.

The purpose of this paper is to provide the estimation of the target price of Vestas at the end of year 2022 by employing the discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation model and recommend an investment decision on whether to buy, hold, or sell shares by comparing the market value of Vestas to the estimated target price. In order to perform valuation, data from the last decade of financial reports are retrieved and a set of assumptions is used to calculate the free cash flow to the firm (FCFF). According to the DCF model, the sum of the future cash flow stream and the terminal value are discounted back to the present value with a perpetuity growth rate of 3.3 percent and the weighted average cost of capital of 9.97 percent as discount rate result in an enterprise value of 30,726 million Euro and an equity value of 32,569 million Euro. At the end of year 2022, the value per share is estimated at 32,25 Euro. Compared to the observed market value on 30 July 2022, which was closed at 25,25 Euro, the target price has a potential upside of 26,34 percent meaning that the target price is undervalued by the market. A sensitivity analysis is performed to assess how sensitive the model is against the changes in the underlying assumptions. In addition to that, to support the recommendation, the relative valuation approach is provided by comparing Vestas financial performance to its peers by multiples.

Kata Kunci : Vestas, Free Cash Flow to the Firm, Discounted Cash Flow, Sensitivity Analysis, Relative Valuation