Demokratisasi Berkelanjutan a la Revolusi Velvet Armenia 2018: Trifecta Nirkekerasan dan Mekanisme Breakthrough

ESTER BETA OLIVIA N, Dr. Diah Kusumaningrum, MA

2022 | Skripsi | S1 ILMU HUBUNGAN INTERNASIONAL

Pada 2018, perlawanan nirkekerasan di Armenia berhasil menjatuhkan Serzh Sargsyan dan membuka babak baru bagi demokrasi Armenia. Keberhasilan ini cukup mengejutkan mengingat kegagalan perlawanan sipil Armenia 2008 dan trayektori demokratisasi di negara pecahan Uni Soviet lainnya. Pertanyaannya, mengapa perlawanan nirkekerasan Revolusi Velvet Armenia 2018 berhasil menjatuhkan diktator yang berkuasa, dan bagaimana peluang keberlanjutan demokrasi baru Armenia? Skripsi ini berargumen bahwa Revolusi Velvet Armenia 2018 berhasil mencapai tujuannya dalam menjatuhkan Serzh Sargsyan karena keberhasilannya memenuhi trifecta perlawanan nirkekerasan yaitu kekompakan, perencanaan, dan disiplin nirkekerasan. Kombinasi ketiganya memungkinkan perlawanan sipil menekan rezim berkuasa, sehingga pilihan yang tersisa adalah memenuhi tujuan aksi. Tidak berhenti pada menjatuhkan diktator, revolusi ini selanjutnya sangat berpeluang mewujudkan demokrasi berkelanjutan di Armenia karena menggunakan pemilihan umum sebagai mekanisme breakthrough. Breakthrough ini menciptakan balance of power yang menguntungkan bagi penantang politik baru, memungkinkan inisiatif transisi dipegang aktor dengan preferensi lebih demokratis, serta memastikan bahwa transisi dilakukan sesuai jalur institusional. Hasilnya adalah serangkaian demokratisasi yang mendorong kemajuan demokrasi Armenia, mencakup perang melawan korupsi, investigasi peristiwa 1 Maret 2008, serta lainnya. Meskipun menemui tantangan karena konflik Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia sejauh ini masih berada dalam jalur demokratisasi dan berpeluang mewujudkan demokrasi berkelanjutan di masa depan.

In 2018, non-violent resistance in Armenia brought down Serzh Sargsyan and opened a new chapter for Armenian democracy. This success was quite surprising considering the failure of the 2008 Armenian protests and the democratization trajectory in other former Soviet Union countries. The question is, why did the non-violent resistance of the 2018 Armenian Velvet Revolution succeed in overthrowing the ruling dictator, and what are the chances of the continuation of Armenia's new democracy? This thesis argues that the 2018 Armenian Velvet Revolution succeeded in overthrowing Sargsyan because of its success in fulfilling the trifecta of nonviolent resistance, namely unity, planning, and nonviolent discipline. The combination of these allowed the civil resistance to suppress the incumbent regime, so that the remaining option was to fulfill the objectives of the movement. Not stopping at overthrowing the dictator, this revolution is very likely to produce sustainable democracy in Armenia because it used elections as its breakthrough. Elections created a favorable balance of power for new political challengers, allowed the transition initiative to be held by actors with more democratic preferences, and ensured that the transition was carried out according to institutional paths. The result was a series of democratizations that led to the progress of Armenian democracy, including the fight against corruption, the investigation of the event of March 1, 2008, and others. Despite facing challenges due to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Armenia is still on the path of democratization and has the opportunity to realize a sustainable democracy in the future.

Kata Kunci : Armenia, demokratisasi, revolusi, trifecta perlawanan nirkekerasan, mekanisme breakthrough