DIVIDEND POLICY AND ELECTIONS: STUDY OF SOUTH EAST ASIAN MARKETS

VETMI OKA CESARIA P, Prof. Sylvain Bourjade

2021 | Tesis | MAGISTER MANAJEMEN (KAMPUS JAKARTA)

Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengevaluasi hubungan antara dividend payout ratio perusahaan di Singapura dan Indonesia, serta pengaruh ketidakpastian politik akibat pemilihan Presiden terhadap kebijakan dividen perusahaan. Makalah ini menggunakan sampel 78 perusahaan dari masing-masing negara dan data berkisar dari 1999 hingga 2019. Tujuh faktor kebijakan dividen dipelajari dengan menggunakan model regresi berganda: Return On Equity, Return On Assets, Financial Leverage, Pertumbuhan Aset, Tarif Pajak Efektif, Laba Per Saham & Arus Kas Gratis. Hasil lebih lanjut diasah dengan menggunakan ukuran tendensi sentral dan analisis korelasi. Namun, hasilnya berbeda untuk kedua negara. Di Singapura, analisis variabel dummy mengungkapkan hubungan yang kuat antara kebijakan dividen dan pemilihan Presiden sehingga perusahaan di Singapura cenderung membayar dividen yang lebih tinggi selama pemilihan. Di Indonesia, ketidakpastian pemilu tidak memiliki hubungan dengan kebijakan dividen perusahaan sampel. Untuk mengetahui dampak ketidakpastian politik terhadap kebijakan dividen, penelitian serupa dengan determinan tambahan Dividend Payout Ratio perlu dilakukan di negaranegara Asia lainnya.

The aim. of this research is to evaluate the relationship. between the dividend. payout ratio of firms in Singapore and Indonesia, as well as the effect of political. uncertainty resulting from the Presidential elections. on the dividend policy. of the firms. The paper uses a sample of 78 firms from each country and data ranges from 1999 to 2019. Seven factors of dividend policy are studied using a multiple regression model: Return On Equity, Return On Assets, Financial Leverage, Asset Growth, Effective Tax Rate, Earnings Per Share & Free Cash Flow. Further results are honed using measures of central tendency and correlation analysis. The results are however, different for both countries. In Singapore, the dummy variable analysis reveals a strong relationship between dividend policy and Presidential elections such that firms in Singapore tend to pay higher dividends during elections. In Indonesia, election uncertainty has no relationship with dividend policy of the sample firms. To find out the impact. of political uncertainty on dividend policy, similar studies with additional determinants of Dividend Payout ratio should be performed in other Asian countries.

Kata Kunci : Political un-rest, Dividend Policy, Presidential Elections, Dividend Payout, Information asymmetry