DIVIDEND POLICY AND ELECTIONS: STUDY OF SOUTH EAST ASIAN MARKETS

WILLYANDRI, Prof. Eduardus Tandelilin, Ph.D.,

2021 | Tesis | MAGISTER MANAJEMEN (KAMPUS JAKARTA)

Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengevaluasi hubungan antara rasio pembayaran deviden perusahaan di Singapura dan Indonesia, serta pengaruh ketidakpastian politik sebagai akibat dari pemilihan presiden terhadap kebijakan deviden perusahaan. Tesis ini menggunakan sampel 78 perusahaan dari masing-masing negara dalam rentang waktu 1999 hingga 2019. Studi ini menggunakan model regresi berganda dengan tujuh variabel sebagai faktor : Return On Equity, Return On Assets, Financial Leverage, Asset Growth, Effective Tax Rate, Earnings Per Share & Free Cash Flow. Hasil lebih lanjut diuji menggunakan pengukuran tendensi sentral dan analisis korelasi. Hasil penelitian berbeda di antara dua negara. Di Singapura, analisis variabel dummy mengungkapkan hubungan yang kuat antara kebijakan dividen dan pemilihan Presiden sehingga perusahaan di Singapura cenderung membayar dividen yang lebih tinggi selama pemilihan. ROE, EPS dan Financial Leverage signifikan sedangkan, variabel lain merupakan penentu yang tidak signifikan dari Dividen Payout. Di Indonesia, ketidakpastian pemilu tidak memiliki hubungan dengan kebijakan dividen perusahaan sampel. Hanya ROA dan Free Cash Flow yang memberikan pengaruh signifikan terhadap pembayaran dividen di Indonesia. Untuk mengetahui dampak ketidakpastian politik pada kebijakan dividen,penelitian serupa dengan variabel-variable tambahan sebagai determinan Dividen Payout perlu dilakukan di negara-negara Asia lainnya.

The aim. of this research is to evaluate the relationship. between the dividend. pay-out ratio of firms in Singapore and Indonesia, as well as the effect of political. uncertainty resulting from the Presidential elections. on the dividend policy. of the firms. The paper uses a sample of 78 firms from each country and data ranges from 1999 to 2019. Seven factors of dividend policy are studied using a multiple regression model: Return On Equity, Return On Assets, Financial Leverage, Asset Growth, Effective Tax Rate, Earnings Per Share & Free Cash Flow. Further results are honed using measures of central tendency and correlation analysis. The results are however, different for both countries. In Singapore, the dummy variable analysis reveals a strong relationship between dividend policy and Presidential elections such that firms in Singapore tend to pay higher dividends during elections. ROE, EPS and Financial Leverage are significant whereas, Effective Tax Rate, Total Assets, Return On Assets & Free Cash Flow are insignificant determinants of Dividend Pay out. In Indonesia, election uncertainty has no relationship with dividend policy of the sample firms. ROA and Free Cash Flow are significant while, ROE, EPS, Financial Leverage, Effective Tax Rate and Total Assets are insignificant determinants of. Dividend Pay out in Indonesia.To find out the impact. of political uncertainty on dividend policy, similar studies with additional determinants of Dividend Pay-out ratio should be performed in other Asian countries.

Kata Kunci : Political un-rest, Dividend Policy, Presidential Elections, Dividend Pay-out, Information asymmetry