Pengaruh Inflasi dan Pandemi Covid-19 terhadap Kesejahteraan Petani Hortikultura di Provinsi Jawa Tengah

THERESIA AVILA I, Arini Wahyu Utami, S.P., M.Sc., Ph.D.;Anung Pranyoto, S.P., M.Ec.;Prof. Dr. Ir. Irham, M.Sc.

2021 | Skripsi | S1 EKONOMI PERTANIAN DAN AGRIBISNIS

Provinsi Jawa Tengah memiliki penduduk yang sebagian besar tinggal di daerah perdesaan dan bermata pencaharian sebagai petani hortikultura. Nilai tukar petani (NTP) merupakan salah satu indikator kesejahteraan petani yang tersusun atas rasio indeks harga yang diterima petani (IT) dan indeks harga yang dibayar petani (IB). Indeks harga berkaitan dengan inflasi yang tersusun dari adanya perubahan harga. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk (1) mengetahui pengaruh inflasi dan pandemi Covid-19 terhadap indeks harga yang diterima petani hortikultura di Provinsi Jawa Tengah, (2) mengetahui pengaruh inflasi dan pandemi Covid-19 terhadap indeks harga yang dibayarkan petani hortikultura di Provinsi Jawa Tengah, (3) mengetahui pengaruh inflasi dan pandemi Covid-19 terhadap NTPH di Provinsi Jawa Tengah. Penelitian dilakukan di Provinsi Jawa Tengah dengan data time series sebanyak 127 bulan dalam periode bulan Januari 2011 hingga Februari 2020 untuk masa sebelum pandemi Covid- 19 dan Maret 2020 hingga Juli 2021 untuk masa pandemi Covid-19. Metode yang digunakan untuk menganalisis data adalah uji stasioneritas, uji kointegrasi, uji diagnostik, dan analisis regresi menggunakan model ARDL-ECM dan ARDL pada software Eviews10. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek peningkatan inflasi menyebabkan peningkatan indeks harga yang diterima petani dan indeks harga yang dibayar petani. Peningkatan inflasi tidak berpengaruh terhadap nilai tukar petani hortikultura. Serta kondisi pandemi Covid-19 tidak berpengaruh terhadap indeks harga yang diterima petani, indeks harga yang dibayar petani, dan terhadap nilai tukar petani hortikultura. Secara keseluruhan, inflasi menyebabkan indeks harga yang diterima petani naik lebih cepat daripada kenaikan indeks harga yang dibayarkan petani sehingga kesejahteraan petani hortikultura meningkat.

Central Java province has a population who mostly live in rural areas and make a living as horticultural farmers. Farmer's Term of Trade (FTT) is an indicator of farmer's welfare which is composed of the ratio of the price index received by farmers and the price index paid by farmers. The price index is related to inflation, which is understood as changes in prices. This study aims to (1) determine the effect of inflation and Covid-19 pandemic on the price index received by horticultural farmers in Central Java Province, (2) determine the effect of inflation and Covid-19 pandemic on the price index paid by horticultural farmers in Central Java Province, (3) determine the effect of inflation and Covid-19 pandemic on the exchange rate of horticultural farmers in Central Java Province. The study was conducted in Central Java Province with time series data of 127 months in the period of January 2011 to February 2020 to represent situation before the Covid-19 pandemic and March 2020 to July 2021 for the Covid-19 pandemic period. The method of analysis include stationarity test, cointegration test, diagnostic test, and regression analysis using ARDL-ECM and ARDL models by using Eviews10 software. The results showed that an increase in inflation causes an increase in the price index received by farmers and the price index paid by farmer in the long and short terms. The increase in inflation does not affect the horticultural farmers’ terms of trade. Similarly, the Covid-19 pandemic does not affect the price index received by farmers, the price index paid by farmers, and the horticultural farmers’ terms of trade. Overall, inflation causes the price index received by farmers to rise faster than the price index paid by farmers, lead to the increase of the horticultural farmers welfare.

Kata Kunci : nilai tukar petani, indeks harga yang diterima petani, indeks harga yang dibayar petani, inflasi, kesejahteraan petani hortikultura, ARDL-ECM, ARDL. farmer's term of trade, price index received by farmers, price index paid by farmers, inflation, welfare