Pengaruh Inflasi terhadap Kesejahteraan Petani Padi di Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta

ELIYA HIZBA F, Arini Wahyu Utami, S.P., M.Sc., Ph.D.;Sugiyarto, S.P., M.Sc.

2021 | Skripsi | S1 EKONOMI PERTANIAN DAN AGRIBISNIS

Kesejahteraan petani menjadi faktor yang perlu diperhatikan demi menjaga kelangsungan suatu usaha tani serta ketersediaan pangan nasional. Kesejahteraan petani dapat dilihat melalui nilai tukar petani (NTP) yang tersusun atas rasio indeks harga yang diterima petani (It) dan indeks harga yang dibayar petani (Ib). Pada dasarnya NTP dapat dipengaruhi oleh beberapa faktor antara lain harga pupuk, upah tenaga kerja, serta inflasi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk (1) mengetahui pengaruh inflasi terhadap indeks harga yang diterima petani tanaman padi di Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek, (2) mengetahui pengaruh inflasi terhadap indeks harga yang dibayarkan petani tanaman padi di Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek, (3) mengetahui pengaruh inflasi terhadap nilai tukar petani tanaman padi di Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek. Penelitian dilakukan di Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta dengan sampel sebanyak 74 bulan dari bulan November 2014 hingga Desember 2020 dengan rentang waktu jangka pendek yaitu setiap satu bulan dan rentang waktu jangka panjang lebih dari satu bulan. Metode yang digunakan untuk menganalisis data adalah uji stasioneritas, uji kointegrasi, uji diagnostik, dan analisis regresi menggunakan model ARDL-ECM. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang peningkatan inflasi menyebabkan indeks harga yang diterima petani menurun, sedangkan dalam jangka pendek peningkatan inflasi menyebabkan peningkatan indeks harga yang diterima petani. Peningkatan inflasi tidak berpengaruh terhadap indeks harga yang dibayar petani dalam jangka panjang, sedangkan dalam jangka pendek peningkatan inflasi menyebabkan peningkatan indeks harga yang dibayar petani. Peningkatan inflasi dalam jangka panjang menyebabkan penurunan nilai tukar petani padi, sedangkan dalam jangka pendek peningkatan inflasi menyebabkan peningkatan nilai tukar petani padi. Secara keseluruhan, adanya inflasi menyebabkan indeks harga yang diterima petani dan nilai tukar petani padi mengalami penurunan sehingga kesejahteraan petani padi menurun.

The welfare of farmers is a factor that needs to be considered in order to maintain the continuity of a farming business and maintain national food availability. Welfare of farmers can be seen through the Farmer's Term of Trade (FTT) which is composed of the ratio of the price index received by farmers and the index of the price paid by farmers. Basically, FTT can be influenced by several factors, including fertilizer prices, seed prices, labor wages, production, and inflation. This study aims to (1) determine the effect of inflation on the price index received by rice farmers in Yogyakarta Special Region in the long and short term, (2) determine the effect of inflation on the price index paid by rice farmers in Yogyakarta Special Region in the long term and short term, (3) determine the effect of inflation on the exchange rate of rice farmers in Yogyakarta Special Region in the long term and short term. The study was conducted in the Yogyakarta Special Region with a sample of 74 months from November 2014 to December 2020 with a short-term period of one month and a long term period of more than one month. The methods used to analyze the data were stationarity test, cointegration test, diagnostic test, and regression analysis using the ARDL-ECM model. The results show that in the long term an increase in inflation causes the price index received by farmers to decrease, while in the short term an increase in inflation will cause an increase in the price index received by farmers. An increase in inflation does not affect the price index paid by farmers in the long term, while in the short term an increase in inflation causes an increase in the price index paid by farmers. An increase in inflation in the long term causes a decrease in the exchange rate of rice farmers, while in the short term an increase in inflation causes an increase in the exchange rate of rice farmers. Overall, inflation causes the price index received by farmers and the exchange rate of rice farmers to decrease so that the welfare of rice farmers decreases.

Kata Kunci : kesejahteraan petani padi, nilai tukar petani, indeks harga yang diterima petani, indeks harga yang dibayar petani, inflasi, ARDL-ECM