EVALUASI NILAI WAJAR SAHAM PT SOHO GLOBAL HEALTH TBK PADA SAAT INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERING (IPO) TAHUN 2020

ANDRIANTO, Prof. Eduardus Tandelilin, M.B.A,.Ph.D.

2021 | Tesis | Magister Ekonomika Pembangunan

PT Soho Global Health Tbk melakukan penawaran umum perdana saham atau Initial Public Offering (IPO) pada tanggal 8 September 2020 dengan tujuan untuk memberikan pertumbuhan modal kerja bisnis distribusi perusahaan. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah mengevaluasi nilai wajar saham PT Soho Global Health Tbk sebagai pembanding atas harga saham pada saat penawaran umum perdana saham, untuk menentukan kondisi undervalued, overvalued, atau keseimbangan harga saham pada saat IPO dengan harga saham pada saat ini, dan sebagai dasar analisis kenaikan harga saham PT Soho Global Health Tbk sejak hari pertama diperdagangkan di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI). Nilai pasar wajar saham PT Soho Global Health Tbk diperoleh dengan menggunakan metode Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) dengan model Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) dan model residual income, dan metode relative valuation dengan faktor pengali (multiple) P/E rasio dan P/S rasio. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder, seperti prospektus, laporan keuangan tahunan PT Soho Global Health Tbk dari 2016 hingga 2020, laporan keuangan perusahaan pembanding, data pertumbuhan PDB Indonesia 2014-2019 dan risk free instrument (imbal hasil obligasi Indonesia 10 tahun). Hasil perhitungan nilai wajar saham PT Soho global Health Tbk dengan menggunakan metode FCFE sebesar Rp2.748,66, dengan residual income sebesar Rp2.735, 79, dan dengan metode relative valuation dengan faktor pengali (multiple) P/E ratio sebesar Rp2.016,28 dan P/S ratio sebesar Rp2.575,85. Hasil rekonsiliasi nilai diperoleh dengan pembobotan 70% untuk metode DCF dan 30% metode relative valuation, sehingga menghasilkan estimasi nilai wajar saham PT Soho Global Health Tbk sebesar Rp2.608, 38. Indikasi nilai diberi diskon likuiditas pasar sebesar 20% diperoleh nilai wajar saham sebesar Rp2.086,70 per lembar sahamnya. Selanjutnya, pemberian pendapat kewajaran (fainess opinion) nilai pasar wajar per lembar saham pada saat IPO per 8 September 2020 berada pada rentang nilai Rp2.158, 09 sampai dengan Rp2.508, 05 dengan harga penetapan penawaran umum perdana Rp1.820, sehingga harga pada saat IPO adalah undervalued. Sedangkan nilai pasar wajar per lembarnya pada saat penilaian tanggal 30 April 2021 berada pada rentang nilai Rp2.697,45 sampai dengan Rp3.134,88 dibandingkan dengan harga penawaran umum perdana saham, sehingga harga pada saat IPO adalah overvalued.

PT Soho Global Health Tbk conducted an Initial Public Offering (IPO) on 8 September 2020 with the aim of providing growth in working capital for their distribution business.The aim of this research is to evaluate the fair value of stocks of PT Soho Global Health Tbk as a comparison to the stocks price at the time of the Initial Public Offering (IPO), to determine the condition of undervalued, overvalued, or fairly valued of the stocks price at the time of IPO with the current stock price, and as a basis analysis of the increase in the stocks price of PT Soho Global Health Tbk since the first day it was traded on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The fair value of stocks of PT Soho Global Health Tbk was obtained using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method with the Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) model and the residual income model, and the relative valuation method with the multiple of P/E ratio and P/S ratio. The data which is used in this research is secondary data, such as prospectuses, finansial report of PT Soho Global Health Tbk from 2016 to 2020, the financial report of comparison companies, data of growth of Gross Domestik Produck (GDP) Indonesia from 2014 to 2019 and risk free instrument (The Indonesia 10Y Government Bond). The results of the calculation of the fair value of stocks of PT Soho Global Health Tbk that is using the FCFE method is Rp2.748,66, the residual income method is Rp2.735,79, and the relative valuation method with multiple of P/E rasio is Rp2.016, 27 and multiple of P/S rasio is Rp2.575,85. The result of value reconciliation is obtained by weighting 70% for the DCF method and 30% for the relative valuation method, resulting in an estimated fair value of stocks of PT Soho Global Health Tbk is Rp2.608,70. The indication of fair value is given Discount for Lack of Marketability (DLOM) 20%, so as to produce fair value of stocks of PT Soho Global Health Tbk is Rp2.086, 70 per share. Furthermore, giving the fainess opinion of the fair value of stocks per share at the IPO on 8 September 2020 is in the value range of Rp2.158,09 to Rp2.508,05 with the price of Initial Public Offering (IPO) is Rp1,820, so the price of the IPO was undervalued at the time. While, the fair value of stocks per share at the time of the valuation on 30 April 2021 was in the range of Rp2.697, 45 to Rp3.134, 88 that is compared to the price of IPO, so the price at the time of the IPO was overvalued.

Kata Kunci : nilai wajar saham, initial public offering, discounted cash flow, residual income, relative valuation