MENGAPA PARTAI ISLAM BELUM PERNAH MENANG ? : Efek Kausal Keputusan Politik Agen dalam Momen Critical Junctures pada Path Dependence Repetition Lintasan Kekalahan Partai Islam Indonesia

AGUS RIYANTO, Prof. Dr. Ichlasul Amal; Dr. rer. pol. Mada Sukmajati

2021 | Disertasi | DOKTOR ILMU POLITIK

Studi ini mengkaji kekalahan partai Islam Indonesia dalam pemilu legislatif sejak Orde Lama hingga era reformasi, yaitu pemilu tahun 1955 sampai 2019. Meskipun Indonesia secara sosiologis merupakan negara Muslim terbesar di dunia, tetapi belum pernah ada partai Islam yang memenangkan kompetisi elektoral pemilu legislatif. Terdapat beragam kajian, namun masih jarang kajian yang mengkaitkan kekalahan partai Islam dengan sejarahnya sendiri sebagai konteks. Studi ini merupakan studi kualitatif dengan pendekatan studi kasus dikombinasikan pendekatan historis menggunakan perspektif institusionalisme historis yaitu analisis path dependence dan critical junctures mengkaji kekalahan partai Islam Indonesia dengan mengkaitkan keputusan politik agen pada peristiwa historis masa lalu dalam momen critical junctures. Kerangka analisa yang digunakan adalah step-wise critical juncture and path dependence repetition model dari Choia, Leeb, Kimb, dan Seonga, serta konsep path dependence-nya Mahoney, dengan mengidentifikasi critical junctures dan antecendent conditions, the aftermath of critical junctures, serta final outcomes. Ada dua temuan utama yang ditawarkan dari kajian studi ini. Pertama, kekalahan partai Islam Indonesia sepanjang lintasan politik sejak Orde Lama hingga era reformasi merupakan hasil dari mekanisme kausal yang terkait dengan keputusan politik agen pada masa lalu dalam momen critical junctures yang memiliki efek signifikan terhadap jalur perkembangan partai Islam dan mengarahkan kepada outcomes kekalahan setiap pemilu legislatif. Ada tiga keputusan politik agen yang berkontribusi terhadap penyebab kekalahan partai Islam. Pertama, keputusan agen Masyumi menetapkan jabatan menteri agama dari faksi non NU dalam pembentukan Kabinet Wilopo tahun 1952. Kedua, keputusan agen partai-partai Islam yang tergabung dalam faksi Islam memperjuangkan legalisasi Piagam Djakarta pada Sidang Konstituante tahun 1959. Ketiga, keputusan agen politik Islam mendirikan beragam partai Islam baru pada awal reformasi tahun 1998. Temuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa kekalahan partai Islam Indonesia terkait sejarahnya sendiri sebagai konteks dan bukan konteks lain di luar partai seperti ekonomi, demokrasi, civil society dan sebagainya, sehingga berkontribusi dan memiliki relevansi dengan kajian terdahulu. Kedua, kekalahan partai Islam Indonesia sepanjang lintasan politik sejak Orde Lama hingga era reformasi mengindikasikan path dependence repetition meliputi tiga proses path dependence yang dipicu oleh tiga momen critical junctures berupa keputusan politik agen partai. Masing-masing critical junctures menghasilkan rangkaian peristiwa lanjutan kausal dalam tahapan the aftermath of critical juncture yaitu proses reactive sequences, reinforcement atau self reinforcing sequences, serta reinforcement atau self reinforcing sequences dan reactive sequence, yang meletakkan partai Islam ke jalur perkembangan tertentu serta mengarahkan menuju final outcome kekalahan pemilu legislatif sejak tahun 1955 hingga 2019. Temuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa path dependence repetition tidak hanya merupakan proses reinforcement atau self reinforcing sequences tetapi bisa juga proses reactive sequences, sehingga berkontribusi dan memiliki relevansi dengan kajian path dependence lainnya khususnya path dependence repetition.

This study examines the defeat of Indonesian Islamic parties in legislative elections from the Old Order to the reform era, namely the elections of 1955 to 2019. Although sociologically Indonesia is the largest Muslim country in the world, no Islamic party has ever won the electoral competition in the legislative elections. There are various studies, but there are still few studies that link the defeat of Islamic parties with its own history as a context. This study is a qualitative study with a case study approach combined with a historical approach using the perspective of historical institutionalism, namely path dependence analysis and critical junctures, examining the defeat of Indonesian Islamic parties by linking the political decisions of agents to past historical events in moments of critical junctures. The analytical framework used is the step-wise critical juncture and path dependence repetition model from Choia, Leeb, Kimb, and Seonga, as well as Mahoney's path dependence concept, by identifying critical junctures and antecendent conditions, the aftermath of critical junctures, and final outcomes. There are two main findings offered from this study. First, the defeat of Indonesian Islamic parties along the political trajectory from the Old Order to the reform era is the result of a causal mechanism related to agent political decisions in the past in moments of critical junctures which have a significant effect on the path of development of Islamic parties and lead to the outcome of the defeat of each legislative election. There are three agent political decisions that contributed to the cause of the defeat of Islamic parties. First, the Masyumi agent's decision to determine the position of minister of religion from the non-NU faction in the formation of the Wilopo Cabinet in 1952. Second, the decision of agents of Islamic parties that are members of the Islamic faction to fight for the legalization of the Djakarta Charter at the 1959 Constituent Assembly. Third, the decision of Islamic political agents to establish various Islamic parties were new at the beginning of the reformation in 1998. These findings indicate that the defeat of the Indonesian Islamic parties is related to its own history as a context and not other contexts outside the party such as economy, democracy, civil society and so on, so that it contributes and has relevance to previous studies. Second, the defeat of Indonesian Islamic parties along the political trajectory from the Old Order to the reform era indicates that the path of dependence repetition includes three process of path dependence triggered by three moments of critical junctures in the form of political decisions of party agents. Each critical junctures produces a series of causal follow-up events in the aftermath of critical juncture, namely the process of reactive sequences, reinforcement or self-reinforcing sequences, as well as reinforcement or self-reinforcing sequences and reactive sequences, which put Islamic parties on a certain path of development and lead to the final. The outcome of the defeat of the legislative elections from 1955 to 2019. These findings indicate that the path dependence repetition is not only a process of reinforcement or self-reinforcing sequences but can also be a process of reactive sequences, so that it contributes and has relevance to other path dependence studies, especially path dependence repetition.

Kata Kunci : critical juncture, path dependence, keputusan agen