EVALUASI DAMPAK DANA DESA TERHADAP PENURUNAN TINGKAT KEMISKINAN DI INDONESIA (Evaluasi Dampak dengan Pendekatan Difference in Difference)

SUPRIYADI, Akhmad Akbar Susamto, M.Phil., Ph.D.

2021 | Tesis | Magister Ekonomika Pembangunan

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menilai dampak Dana Desa terhadap pengurangan kemiskinan di Indonesia melalui tiga indikator kemiskinan yaitu persentase penduduk miskin, indeks kedalaman kemiskinan dan indeks keparahan kemiskinan. Peneliti melakukan analisis kemiskinan pada level kabupaten kota mulai tahun 2012-2019 menggunakan pendekatan difference in difference. Penelitian ini menggunakan model least square dummy variable (LSDV) yaitu dengan menambahkan dummy kabupaten/kota dan dummy tahun untuk mengontrol fixed effect dan time effect. Hasil studi memberikan bukti bahwa dana desa dapat dikaitkan dengan penurunan persentase penduduk miskin. Secara rata-rata kabupaten/kota penerima dana desa mampu menurunkan persentase penduduk miskin sekitar 0.125 s.d. 0,273 poin persen lebih baik dibandingkan dengan kota non penerima dana desa. Namun, hasil penelitian tidak dapat memberikan bukti adanya dampak dana desa pada penurunan indeks kedalaman kemiskinan dan indeks keparahan kemiskinan. Analisis dampak dana desa per wilayah memberikan hasil yang berbeda-beda. Pada kabupaten/kota di wilayah Jawa, dana desa dapat dikaitkan dengan penurunan persentase penduduk miskin dan indeks kedalaman kemiskinan sekitar 0,894 dan 0,140 poin persen. Pada Kabupaten/Kota di wilayah luar Jawa hasil penelitian tidak dapat memberikan bukti dampak dana desa pada penurunan kemiskinan baik yang diukur dengan persentase penduduk miskin, indeks kedalaman kemiskinan maupun indeks keparahan kemiskinan.

This study aims to assess the impact of the Village Fund transfer on poverty in Indonesia through three poverty indicators, namely the headcount index, poverty gap index, and poverty severity index. We conducted a poverty analysis at the district and city level starting from 2012-2019 using the difference in difference approach. We employed the least square dummy variable (LSDV) model by adding the district/city dummy and year dummy to control the fixed effect and time effect. Our results provided evidence that the village fund transfer can be associated with a reduction in the headcount index. On average, districts/cities that received village fund transfer were able to reduce the headcount index by about 0.125 to 0.273 percentage points better than the cities that did not receive village funds. However, the research cannot provide evidence of village funds' impact on reducing the poverty gap index and the poverty severity index. Analysis of the impact of village funds by region has produced mixed results. In regencies/cities in the Java region, village funds can be linked to a decrease in the headcount index and a poverty gap index by about 0.894 and 0.140 percentage points. In districts/cities in areas outside Java, we have no evidence of village funds' impact on poverty reduction, measured by the headcount index, poverty gap index, or poverty severity index.

Kata Kunci : poverty, impact evaluation, village fund transfer