Evaluasi Kebijakan Subsidi Bahan Bakar Minyak dan Gas Serta Dampaknya terhadap Sektor-Sektor Strategis dan Distribusi Pendapatan Rumah Tangga di Indonesia

GUMILAR ACHMAD R, Prof. Dr. Wahyudi Kumorotomo, MPP., Dr. Agus Joko Pitoyo, MA., Mulyadi Sumarto, MPP.Ph.D

2020 | Disertasi | DOKTOR KEPEMIMPINAN DAN INOVASI KEBIJAKAN

Kebijakan subsidi diperlukan untuk mempertahankan daya beli masyarakat, namun sebagian berpendapat subsidi tidak produktif sehingga harus dihapuskan. Belanja subsidi pada APBN 2019, terdiri dari subsidi BBM, LPG, listrik dan subsidi non-energi. Penelitian ini difokuskan kepada subsidi BBM dan LPG 3 Kg, khususnya menguraikan evaluasi kebijakan subsidi BBM berupa solar dan minyak tanah serta LPG 3 Kg, (yang kemudian disebut subsidi BBMigas) pasca reformasi serta membahas simulasi kebijakan pengurangan subsidi BBMigas, memprediksi dampaknya terhadap sektor-sektor strategis dan distribusi pendapatan rumah tangga sektor-sektor tersebut. Hasil penelitian ini juga mengimplementasikan sensitivity analysis dengan empat simulasi berbeda yaitu simulasi 1: kenaikan harga BBMigas sebesar 20 persen; simulasi 2: kenaikan harga BBMigas sebesar 40 persen; simulasi 3: kenaikan harga BBMigas sebesar 60 persen; dan simulasi 4: Penghapusan subsidi BBMigas. Metode penelitian dilakukan dengan analisis Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model Indonesia Clean Energy and Energy Conservation (INDOCEEC), kemudian dilakukan wawancara mendalam terhadap pihak terkait. Analisis dilakukan untuk mengetahui sejauh mana dampak alternatif simulasi kebijakan terhadap indikator makro ekonomi seperti produk domestik bruto dan konsumsi masyarakat serta terhadap sektor-sektor strategis seperti sektor Perdagangan, sektor Infrastruktur, sektor Restoran dan Hotel, sektor Tanaman Pangan, sektor Produk Makanan, sektor Pertambangan Umum, sektor Manufaktur Transportasi, dan sektor Perikanan. Disamping itu, hasil penelitian ini juga memprediksi sejauh mana dampak kebijakan subsidi bahan bakar minyak dan gas (BBMigas) berpengaruh terhadap mikro ekonomi dan distribusi pendapatan rumah tangga pada masing-masing sektor Perdagangan, sektor Infrastruktur, sektor Restoran dan Hotel, sektor Tanaman Pangan, sektor Produk Makanan, sektor Pertambangan Umum, sektor Manufaktur Transportasi, dan sektor Perikanan. Kebijakan harga bahan bakar minyak dan gas (BBMigas) dapat di-implementasi¬kan oleh pemerintah dengan pertimbangan mana yang lebih optimal diantara Pengurangan Subsidi subsidi yang di¬dapat oleh pemerintah dengan kinerja makro ekonomi, dampak terhadap sektor-sektor strategis serta terhadap distribusi pendapatan rumah tangga. Indikasi akan turunnya konsumsi rumah tangga harus menjadi salah satu perhatian utama pemerintah ketika me¬nerap¬kan kebijakan Pengurangan Subsidi BBMigas. Hal ini dikarenakan konsumsi rumah tangga mengalami penurunan yang relatif besar sebagai akibat dampak langsung dari kebijakan ini. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa semua alternatif kebijakan relatif memberikan pengaruh penurunan terhadap sektor-sektor strategis yang diamati. Penurunan tersebut mempunyai kecendurungan lebih rendah jika alternatif kebijakan yang dilakukan tidak serta merta langsung kepada nilai yang signifikan, misalnya kebijakan penghapusan subsidi langsung dilaksanakan. Bagaimanapun juga pengambil kebijakan hendaknya perlu untuk melihat kestabilan kondisi perekonomian. Alternatif kebijakan simulasi 1, yakni harga BBMigas naik sebesar 20 persen, dapat dijadikan pertimbangan dalam jangka pendek, karena disamping negara mendapatkan pemasukan dari hasil penghematan anggaran, dampaknya terhadap sektor-sektor lainnya serta terhadap distribusi pendapatan rumah tangga pada sektor-sektor tersebut, dinilai masih dalam tahap wajar, sehingga diharapkan masyarakat akan dapat menyesuaikan dengan kebijakan dimaksud. Jika pembangunan infrastruktur produktif yang diklaim pemerintah telah berjalan sebagai mana mestinya, barulah kebijakan yang ekstrim, seperti penghapusan subsidi BBMigas dapat dipertimbangkan untuk dilaksanakan, karena telah ada dukungan tambahan dari segi infrastruktur sarana dan prasaranya. Tentu saja hal tersebut masih diperlukan kajian yang lebih lanjut.

Subsidy policies are needed to maintain people's purchasing power, but some argue that subsidies are not productive and should be eliminated. Subsidy spending on the 2019 APBN consists of fuel, LPG, electricity, and non-energy subsidies. This research is focused on subsidized BBM and LPG 3 kg, specifically describing the policy evaluation of fuel subsidies in the form of diesel and kerosene and 3 kg LPG, (which is then called BBM subsidies) after reform and discussing the simulation of fuel oil and gas price adjustment policies, predicting their impact on sectors strategic and distribution of household income in these sectors. The results of this study also implemented sensitivity analysis with four different simulations, namely simulation 1: the increase in oil and gas prices by 20 percent; simulation 2: an increase in oil and gas prices by 40 percent; simulation 3: an increase in oil and gas prices by 60 percent; and simulation 4: Eliminating oil and gas subsidies. The research method was carried out with a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis model of the Indonesia Clean Energy and Energy Conservation (INDOCEEC), then an in-depth interview with related parties. The analysis is carried out to find out the extent of the impact of alternative policy simulations on macroeconomic indicators such as gross domestic product and public consumption as well as on strategic sectors such as the Trade sector, Infrastructure sector, Restaurant and Hotel sector, Food Crop sector, Food Products sector, General Mining sector, Transportation Manufacturing sector, and Fisheries sector. Also, the results of this study predict the extent of the impact of fuel and gas subsidies (BBMigas) policies affecting the microeconomic and household income distribution in each of the Trade sectors, Infrastructure sector, Restaurant and Hotel sectors, Food Crops sector, Sector Food Products, General Mining sector, Transportation Manufacturing sector, and Fisheries sector. The policy of the price of fuel oil and gas (BBMigas) can be implemented by the government with consideration of which is more optimal between adjusting the price of subsidies obtained by the government with macroeconomic performance, the impact on strategic sectors, and the distribution of home income stairs. Indications of falling household consumption should be one of the main concerns of the government when implementing the fuel oil and gas price adjustment policy. This is because household consumption has decreased relatively large as a result of the direct impact of this policy. The results showed that all policy alternatives had a relative effect on the observed strategic sectors. The decrease has a lower tendency of the alternative policies made are not necessarily direct to a significant value, for example, the policy of eliminating direct subsidies is implemented. However, policymakers should need to see the stability of economic conditions. Simulation policy alternative 1, namely oil and gas prices rose by 20 percent, can be taken into consideration in the short term, because in addition to the state getting income from the budget savings, its impact on other sectors and the distribution of household income in these sectors, is still considered in a reasonable stage so that the public is expected to be able to adjust to the intended policy. If the productive infrastructure development that is claimed by the government has run as it should, then extreme policies, such as the elimination of oil and gas subsidies can be considered to be implemented, because there has been additional support in terms of infrastructure facilities and infrastructure. Of course, this is still needed further study.

Kata Kunci : subsidi bahan bakar minyak dan gas, distribusi pendapatan, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)