EVALUASI KINERJA DAN NILAI WAJAR HARGA SAHAM STUDI PADA BANK BUKU IV (BANK BCA, BRI, MANDIRI DAN BNI)

ADITYA CATUR KUSUMA, Mamduh M. Hanafi, Prof. Dr., M.B.A.,

2020 | Tesis | MAGISTER MANAJEMEN (KAMPUS JAKARTA)

Penelitian dilakukan dengan melakukan analisis fundamental pada bank BUKU IV yang bertujuan untuk menganalisis kinerja saham dan mengevaluasi nilai wajar harga, sehingga menjadi pertimbangan keputusan investasi di pasar modal. Pertimbangan melakukan keputusan investasi yaitu buy, hold dan sell adalah dengan membandingkan nilai wajar harga saham dengan nilai pasarnya, yakni overvalued / undervalued. Keputusan investasi yang tepat untuk saham overvalued adalah sell, sementara untuk saham undervalued adalah buy dan hold. Analisis kinerja bank diukur menggunakan kinerja keuangan perusahaan dengan data laporan keuangan tahun 2018. Metode analisis kinerja keuangan menggunakan Economic Value Added (EVA) dan nilai wajar harga saham menggunakan metode Discounted Dividend, Discounted Cash Flow, Excess Return, Price Earning Ratio (PER) dan Price Book Value (PBV), yang setelahnya dilakukan rekonsiliasi nilai wajar harga saham dengan mengambil nilai rata-rata dari semua metode yang digunakan. Hasil penelitian menemukan bahwa kinerja keuangan terbaik dari antara BBCA, BBRI, BBNI dan BMRI berdasarkan Economic Value Added (EVA) adalah BBCA dengan nilai Rp 21.362.358.479.123,00. Evaluasi perbandingan nilai wajar harga saham menurut hasil rekonsiliasi atas metode Discounted Dividend, Discounted Cash Flow, Excess Return, Price Earning Ratio (PER) dan Price Book Value (PBV) dengan nilai pasar ditemukan bahwa saham BBCA, BBNI, BBRI dan BMRI pada posisi overvalued yang disimpulkan bahwa keputusan investasi yang tepat adalah sell jika memiliki saham dan tidak disarankan untuk buy.

The study was conducted by conducting a fundamental analysis on the BUKU IV bank which aims to analyze stock performance and evaluate the fair value of prices, furthermore it becomes a consideration of investment decisions in the capital market. Consideration of making investment decisions (such as buy, hold and sell) by compare the fair value of stock prices with market values, known by overvalued / undervalued. The right investment decision for overvalued stocks is sell, while for undervalued stocks are buy and hold. Bank performance analysis is measured using the company's financial performance by use 2018 financial statement data. The method of financial performance analysis by Economic Value Added (EVA) and fair value of stock prices by Discounted Dividend, Discounted Cash Flow, Excess Return, Price Earning Ratio (PER) and Price Book Value (PBV), which afterwards reconciles the fair value of the stock price by the output of the average value of all methods used. The results found that the best financial performance among BBCA, BBRI, BBNI and BMRI based on Economic Value Added (EVA) was BBCA with a value of Rp 21,352,358,479,123.00. An evaluation of the comparative fair value of stock prices according to the results of the reconciliation of the Discounted Dividend, Discounted Cash Flow, Excess Return, Price Earning Ratio (PER) and Price Book Value (PBV) and market value methods found that BBCA, BBNI, BBRI and BMRI stock's were overvalued which concluded that the right investment decision is to sell if you have the stock's and it is not recommended to buy.

Kata Kunci : analisis fundamental, analisis kinerja keuangan, evaluasi nilai wajar harga saham, keputusan investasi (buy, hold dan sell)