FLUKTUASI DAN VOLATILITAS HARGA GULA KELAPA SULFIT DAN NON SULFIT DI PTPN XII

ADIATMONO, Dr. Jamhari, S.P., M.P.; Dr. Ir. Lestari Rahayu Waluyati, M.P.

2020 | Tesis | Magister Manajemen Agribisnis

Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui: (i) trend produksi gula kelapa sulfit dan non sulfit di PT. Perkebunan Nusantara XII, (ii) trend nilai penjualan gula kelapa sulfit dan non sulfit gula kelapa di PT. Perkebunan Nusantara XII, (iii) fluktuasi dan volatilitas harga gula kelapa sulfit dan non sulfit di PT. Perkebunan Nusantara XII, dan (iv) pengaruh produksi, harga perkiraan sendiri (HPS), dan jumlah peserta lelang terhadap harga gula kelapa sulfit dan non sulfit PT. Perkebunan Nusantara XII. Jenis data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder hasil penjualan produk gula kelapa sulfit dan gula kelapa non sulfit mingguan dari tahun 2014 sampai dengan 2018. Metode analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode trend, ARCH-GARCH, dan regresi berganda. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa produksi gula kelapa sulfit dan non sulfit di PT. Perkebunan Nusantara XII selama periode tahun 2014 sampai dengan 2018 mengalami penurunan, yakni masing-masing gula kelapa non sulfit -0,115% dan gula kelapa sulfit -0,341%. Nilai penjualan gula kelapa non sulfit di PT. Perkebunan Nusantara XII selama periode tahun 2014 sampai dengan 2018 mengalami peningkatan 0,0254% sedangkan gula kelapa sulfit dalam periode yang sama cenderung mengalami penurunan (-0,184%). Metode peramalan harga harga kejadian gula kelapa non sulfit dan harga kejadian gula kelapa sulfit dibutuhkan pendekatan yang berbeda. Untuk harga kejadian gula kelapa non sulfit pendekatan yang lebih sesuai adalah dengan model ARCH/GARCH sedangkan harga kejadian gula kelapa sulfit metode peramalan dengan model ARIMA dapat diandalkan. Harga kejadian gula kelapa sulfit dipengaruhi oleh produksi, harga perkiraan sendiri (HPS), dan jumlah peserta lelang. Sedangkan harga kejadian gula kelapa non sulfit dipengaruhi oleh produksi dan harga perkiraan sendiri (HPS). Harga kejadian gula kelapa baik gula kelapa non sulfit maupun gula kelapa sulfit, penjualan melalui mekanisme lelang lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan penjualan melalui mekanisme free sale.

The purpose of this study was to determine: (i) the trend of production of sulfite and non-sulfite coconut sugar at PT. Perkebunan Nusantara XII, (ii) trend in the sales value of coconut sugar in sulfite and non-sulfite coconut sugar at PT. Perkebunan Nusantara XII, (iii) fluctuations and volatility in prices of sulfite and non-sulfite coconut sugar at PT. Perkebunan Nusantara XII, and (iv) the effect of production, own estimation price (HPS), and the number of auction participants on the prices of sulfite and non-sulfite coconut sugar PT. Perkebunan Nusantara XII. The type of data used is secondary data from the sale of sulfite coconut sugar products and weekly non-sulfite coconut sugar from 2014 to 2018. The analytical method used in this study is the trend, ARCH-GARCH, and multiple regression methods. The results showed that the production of sulfite and non-sulfite coconut sugar at PT. Perkebunan Nusantara XII during the period 2014 to 2018 tended to decrease, ie, each non-sulfite coconut sugar -0.115% and sulfite coconut sugar -0.334%. The sales value of non-sulfite coconut sugar at PT. Perkebunan Nusantara XII over the period 2014 to 2018 tended to increase by 0.0254% while sulfite coconut sugar in the same period tended to decrease (-0.184%). The forecasting method for the price of the price of the occurrence of non-sulfite coconut sugar and the price of the occurrence of sulfite coconut sugar requires a different approach. For the price of the occurrence of the more suitable non-sulfite coconut sugar, the ARCH / GARCH model while the price of the occurrence of sulfite coconut sugar forecasting method with the ARIMA model is reliable. The price of the occurrence of sulfite coconut sugar is influenced by production, the estimated price (HPS), and the number of bidders. While the price of the occurrence of non-sulfite coconut sugar is influenced by production and self-estimated prices (HPS). The price of the occurrence of coconut sugar, both non-sulfite coconut sugar and sulfite coconut sugar, is sold through an auction mechanism higher than the sale through a free sale mechanism.

Kata Kunci : volatilitas, ragam, heteroskedastik, ARCH, GARCH