SAFEGUARD ON CERAMIC TILES: THE ESTIMATED IMPACTS ON THE INDONESIAN ECONOMY

NADIA FAZIRA, Prof.Dr.Tri Widodo,M.Ec.,Dev

2018 | Tesis | MAGISTER SAINS ILMU EKONOMI

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak dari penerapan kebijakan safeguards ubin keramik di Indonesia menggunakan model GTAP. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa volume impor keramik Indonesia menurun dan ekonomi Indonesia, khususnya industri domestik, bergerak ke arah yang positif. Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi lonjakan impor ubin keramik di Indonesia adalah implementasi kebijakan anti-dumping oleh India dan UE terhadap China sehingga China mengalihkan ekspornya ke Indonesia. Selain itu, penurunan tarif impor dalam perjanjian ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) juga menjadi salah satu penggerak tingginya impor ubin keramik di Indonesia.

This study aims to analyze the possible impact of the implementation of ceramic tile safeguard policies in Indonesia using the GTAP model. The simulation results show that the volume of imports of Indonesian ceramic tiles has decreased and the Indonesian economy, especially the domestic industry, is moving in a positive direction. The factors that influence the surge in imports of ceramic tiles in Indonesia are the implementation of anti-dumping policies by India and EU against China so that China diverts its exports to Indonesia. In addition, the decline in import tariffs in the agreement of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) also became one of the drivers of the high import of ceramic tiles in Indonesia.

Kata Kunci : safeguards, ceramic tiles, GTAP model