The Analysis of Financial Condition and Estimating the Intrinsic Value of Ryanair Holdings PLC�s Share

ALEXSANDER JIMMY G, Prof. Dr. Athanase Plastiras

2018 | Skripsi | S1 MANAJEMEN

Penelitian ini mengestimasi nilai intrinsik dari Ryanair Holdings PLC, dengan menggunakan dua pendekatan penilaian yaitu Metode Valuasi Relatif dan Discounted Cash Flow (DCF). Metode DCF menggunakan arus kas bebas untuk perusahaan (FCFF). Untuk melakukan perhitungan, penulis perlu meramalkan neraca dan FCFF perusahaan dari tahun 2018 hingga 2023. Metode penilaian relatif menggunakan price earning ratio (PER) dan price to sales ratio (P/S) sebagai pengali. Valuasi menggunakan laporan keuangan tahunan perusahaan dari 2013 hingga 2017 sebagai tahun yang diteliti. Penulis juga mengambil analisis Top-down dan analisis rasio Aktivitas dalam akun untuk proses penilaian. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa berdasarkan metode DCF, nilai saham Ryanair adalah EUR 22,3, sementara menggunakan metode penilaian relatif adalah EUR 19,25 (PER ratio) dan EUR 22,72 (rasio P/S). Hasil rekonsiliasi nilai menggunakan dua pendekatan adalah EUR 21,5. Dengan demikian, harga saham Ryanair dievaluasi menjadi undervalued dan penulis menyarankan para investor untuk membelinya. Kata kunci: Valuasi perusahaan, nilai intrinsik, RYA.I, Discounted Cash Flow, Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF), penilaian relatif, Price earning ratio (PER), Price to sales ratio (P/S), analisis top-down, rasio aktivitas.

This study estimates the intrinsic value of Ryanair Holdings PLC, by using two valuation approaches which are Relative Valuation method and Discounted Cash flow (DCF). DCF method used free cash flow to the firm (FCFF). In order to do the calculation, the author needs to forecast the balance sheet and FCFF of the company from year 2018 to 2023. Relative valuation method used price earning ratio (PER) and price to sales ratio (P/S) as multiplier. The valuation uses the annual financial report of the company from 2013 to 2017 as the studied year. The author also takes Top-down analysis and Activity ratio analysis in account for the valuation process. The results show that based on DCF method, the value of Ryanair stock is EUR 22.3, while using relative valuation method are EUR 19.25 (PER ratio) and EUR 22.72 (P/S ratio). The result of the value reconciliation using two approaches is EUR 21.5. Thus, the Ryanair's stock price is evaluated to be undervalued and the author suggests the investors to buy it. Keywords: Company valuation, intrinsic value, RYA.I, Discounted Cash Flow, Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF), relative valuation, Price earning ratio (PER), Price to sales ratio (P/S), top-down analysis, activity ratio.

Kata Kunci : Company valuation, intrinsic value, RYA.I, Discounted Cash Flow, Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF), relative valuation, Price earning ratio (PER), Price to sales ratio (P/S), top-down analysis, activity ratio.