MODEL EPIDEMI CACAR AIR DENGAN KONTROL VAKSINASI ( AN EPIDEMIC MODEL OF VARICELLA WITH VACCINATION CONTROL )

AR RUHIMAT, QURROTA A’YUNI, Imam Suyanto

2016 | Disertasi | FMIPA

In this paper, a mathematic model of Varicella Zoster Virus which can influence Varicella is analyzed. The model is analyzed by checking the stability of equilibrium points and computing the effective reproductive number. This model has two equilibrium points, a disease-free and an endemic equilibrium point. In terms of its effective reproductive number, if Re < 1 the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable and the infection will disappear after some period of time. It also means that the vaccination in that population is effective. Whereas if Re > 1, the endemic equilibrium is also locally asymptotically stable or epidemic will occur in the population. It means that the vaccination is not optimal enough to prevent the infection. Numerical simulations verify the theoretical results and present that the proportion of newborn who are vaccinated has a significant impact on the Varicella infection.

Kata Kunci : N