OPTIMISASI DISCRETE GREY MODEL (1,1) SEBAGAI METODE PERAMALAN UNTUK UKURAN DATA KECIL' OPTIMIZATION OF DISCRETE GREY MODEL (1,1) AS A FORECASTING METHOD FOR SMALL DATASET

Azizah, Lakshmi N, Abdurakhman

2015 | Skripsi | FMIPA

Forecasting is the basis for planning and it plays an important role in the planning process for the future because forecasting can help decision makers to anticipate the situation that would occur in the future. Short term forecasting is very important to solves the problem. However, the historical data is hard to get and limited makes inaccurate forecast. Grey Forecasting Model or GM (1,1) is one of forecasting model with first order differential equation and one variable. In this thesis, used optimization of Discrete Grey Forecasting Model or DGM (1,1) which is one form of Grey Forecasting Model. Optimization of DGM (1,1) using either discrete form in estimating the parameters as well as in estimating the value of forecasts in order to obtain short-term forecasting results more accurate for a small dataset.

Kata Kunci : small dataset; Grey Forecasting Model; Discrete Grey Model; optimisasi Discrete Grey Model; short-term forecasting