MODEL PENYEBARAN PENYAKIT FLU BURUNG DENGAN KEJADIAN HALF-SATURATED DAN KEJADIAN BILINEAR; (A Spread Model of Avian Influenza with Half-Saturated Incidence and Bilinear Incidence)

BILLY ARIFA TENGGER, Lina Aryati

2015 | Disertasi | FMIPA

Avian influenza is an infectious disease caused by type A influenza virus called H5N1 and transmitted by birds. On its development, avian influenza not only affects birds, but also can infect humans. This thesis will discuss about the avian influenza model with half-saturated incidence and bilinear incidence, then analyze the disease-free equilibrium point from both models. If 1 ah R < and 1 AH R < , it is concluded that the disease-free equilibrium point of both models are globally asymptotically stable, which means that for every initial condition, it will lead to the disease eradication. The simulation showed that the model of avian influenza with half-saturated incidence produces around 16% more than the maximum number of infected humans simulated by the bilinear incidence, and requires more time so that the disease will be eradicated. Several ways that can be used to eradicate the avian influenza are reducing contact with infected individual, decreasing the human recruitment rate, and/or increasing the half-saturation constant for human with mutant strain through isolation or to quarantine the patient of avian influenza with mutant strain.

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