MODEL PERAMALAN ADAPTIVE GREY (1,1) UNTUK PERAMALAN JANGKA PENDEK PADA JUMLAH DATA KECIL; ADAPTIVE GREY FORECASTING MODEL (1,1) FOR SHORT-TERM TIME SERIES FORECASTING ON SMALL DATASET

AYU WIDYANINGSIH, Herni Utami

2015 | Skripsi | FMIPA

Forecasting is needed to make a plan in the future. if the results of the forecasting approach the actual data, the forecasting model is said good to use. However, the data or observations sometimes is very limited that result the forecast are not accurate. Grey Forecasting Model called GM (1,1) is a forecasting model for limited data. This model using first order differential equations with one variable. Adaptive Grey Forecasting Model or AGM (1.1) is one of the development of GM (1,1) which has a better forecasting accuracy rate for short-term forecasting on limited data. AGM (1.1) consists of two parts: the calculation of the value of the trend and potency tracking method using minimum initialization for four first data and grey forecasting model building.

Kata Kunci : Short-term time series forecasting; small dataset; Grey forecasting model; Adaptive grey forecasting model; Trend and Potency Tracking Method.