PERAMALAN MORTALITA DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE LEE-CARTER; FORECASTING MORTALITY USING THE LEE-CARTER METHOD

Tri Tanami Sukraini, Danardono

2013 | Disertasi | PROGRAM STUDI S2 MATEMATIKA

This thesis describes the application of the Lee-Carter method to forecasting mortality rates. These rates are available for the period that goes from 1950 to 2000. The index of the level of mortality is estimated using The Singular Value Decomposition. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) used to forecast the mortality index for the time period that goes from 2001 to 2025 in order to project life expectancy at birth using life tables

Kata Kunci : PERAMALAN MORTALITA; METODE LEE-CARTER