Kemampuan prediksi laba dan arus kas terhadap dividen masa depan (studi empiris terhadap perusahaan yang terdaftar di bursa efek Indonesia periode 2004-2007)
WULANDARI, MARTINA , Wiwin Rahmanti, SE,M.Com
This paper aims to examine profit and cash flow ability in predicting dividend. Population in this research are all go public firms in Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI/Indonesian Stock Exchange) and are still registered to 2007. Sample selection in this research is performed by using purposive sampling method, i.e. method of sample selection by using certain criteria. This research is conducted towards manufacture firms registered in Indonesian Stock Exchange (BEI) and registered in Indonesian Capital Market Directory (ICMD) for four time periods, i.e. from 2004 to 2007. Number of sample used in this research was 21 firms.
Dependent variable in this research is dividend per share (DPS). Dividend per share (DPS) explains the amount of cash dividend received by stockholders from every common share. While independent variable examined are earnings per share (EPS) and operating cash flow per share (OCFPS) estimated based on firm's annually financial statement from 2004 to 2007. Earnings per share (EPS) are total profit achieved by investors for their every share. That total profit is measured from ratio between earnings after tax (EAT) and amount of outstanding share. Whereas amount of cash flow coming from operation activities is defined as the entire transactions of cash receipt relates to sales income and cash outflows relates to operation cost, including payment to goods and service suppliers, wage payment, interest and tax (cash flow achieved from activities of primary producer of firm's income)
After measurement of each independent variable, the author then performs examination by using multiple linear regression. Regression analysis results show that only earnings per share having significant influence in predicting future dividend. Whereas operating cash flow per share (OCFPS) does not have significant influence in predicting future dividend.
Kata Kunci : dividen, arus kas, laba
